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Very Hot Topic (More than 75 Replies) U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!? (Read 26606 times)
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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #50 - Sep 30th, 2015 at 10:19am
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Galadriel wrote on Sep 30th, 2015 at 8:26am:
Can you explain these lines as I may be getting the wrong idea from them.

I won't nitpick on the rest as I overall agree and flushing out minute details isn't constructive in any way.


Sure.
A recovery strategy for a business like this needs to be multi-pronged.
1. Stop the hemorrhaging of existing players (I think may have gone too far already).  A lot of what we have discussed like QoL fixes contribute to this - getting rid of bugs that noticeably impact the player experience.   Fixing crude vials was not one of these.

2. Increase revenues.  Fastest way is to attract new players to the game - marketing strategy.  Understand DDO and its niche.  Market to it and don't try to be WoW or a Zynga clone.  Get out to GenCon and other cons and make people aware that DDO exists.
A point of caution - in trying to raise revenues, there are likely to be misguided attempts to gouge the players.  Respect your customers - offer them value for money (eg. 4000TP for that stupid Treasure chest was insulting).  If you get the balancing and price point right, many small sales are far better than a few big ones.  DDO has become addicted to its whales (but see point 1, it is losing them).

3. Retain the new players.  No point bringing new players in if you leak like a sieve.  The new player experience has to be better.  For quite awhile, The Grotto (the first mandatory intro quest) was broken and difficult to finish.  It took me ten attempts on a mule account a few months ago - not sure if it is still bugged.
If new players get bugged out on the first quest - what impression will they form of the game.
DDO strength is the flexibility of what you build and the order you do things in and that should remain.
For new players, they should be able to choose a class path and have it viable to 20 at least.  Each class should have 3 class paths as they do now, but they're currently a joke.  Players can still build toons as per normal - no dumbing down of build options intended.

Intro quests to the game.  I think the path into the game could be smoother and more polished.
You should be able to select a guide option (switchable) which recommends what to do next up to lvl 5 (possibly differs by majority class).  This should give new players the ability to receive a recommended quest path(s) - no sparkly paths I promise.   Grin
Also, many of those new quests should be reviewed and polished where required.
The other thing is some tutorials on the key concepts as there is a lot to learn.  Even thingslike choosing quest difficulty.  Lets educate new players that Elite is not for them.  How to put up and LFM and manage it.  etc.   Existing players could help with this.

My objective was to get new players engaged and invested enough to stick around awhile.  There is plenty of content at lower levels and suitable difficulty for new players.  Capitalise on it.

Lots more thoughts on the subject, but I think that sums up what I was alluding to.
« Last Edit: Sep 30th, 2015 at 11:14am by DropBear »  
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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #51 - Sep 30th, 2015 at 10:47am
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DropBear wrote on Sep 30th, 2015 at 10:19am:
Sure.
A recovery strategy for a business like this needs to be multi-pronged.
1. Stop the hemorrhaging of existing players (I think may have gone too far already).  A lot of what we have discussed like QoL fixes contribute to this - getting rid of bugs that noticeably impact the player experience.   Fixing crude vials was not one of these.

2. Increase revenues.  Fastest way is to attract new players to the game - marketing strategy.  Understand DDO and its niche.  Market to it and don't try to be WoW or a Zynga clone.  Get out to GenCon and other cons and make people aware that DDO exists.
A point of caution - in trying to raise revenues, there are likely to be misguided attempts to gouge the players.  Respect your customers - offer them value for money (eg. 4000TP for that stupid Treasure chest was insulting).  If you get the balancing and price point right, many small sales are far better than a few big ones.  DDO has become addicted to its whales (but see point 1, it is losing them).

3. Retain the new players.  No point bringing new players in if you leak like a sieve.  The new player experience has to be better.  For quite awhile, The Grotto (the first mandatory intro quest) was broken and difficult to finish.  It took me ten attempts on a mule account a few months ago - not sure if it is still bugged.
If new players get bugged out on the first quest - what impression will they form of the game.
DDO strength is the flexibility of what you build and the order you do things in and that should remain.
For new players, they should be able to choose a class path and have it viable to 20 at least.  Each class should have 3 class paths as they do now, but they're currently a joke.  Players can still build toons as per normal - no dumbing down of build options intended.

Intro quests to the game.  I think the path into the game could be smoother and more polished.
You should be able to select a guide option (switchable) which recommends what to do next up to lvl 5 (possibly differs by majority class).  This should give new players the ability to receive a recommended quest path(s) - no sparkly paths I promise.   Grin
Also, many of those new quests should be reviewed and polished where required.
The other thing is some tutorials on the key concepts as there is a lot to learn.  Even things choosing quest difficulty.  Lets educate new players that Elite is not for them.  How to put up and LFM and manage it.

My objective was to get new players engaged and invested enough to stick around awhile.  There is plenty of content at lower levels and suitable difficulty for new players.  Capitalise on it.

Lots more thoughts on the subject, but I think that sums up what I was alluding to.

i think that was well said
  
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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #52 - Sep 30th, 2015 at 11:00am
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DropBear wrote on Sep 30th, 2015 at 10:19am:
Stop the hemorrhaging of existing players (I think may have gone too far already).


I think this is the bottom line.  I'm pretty sure the ship sailed before Sev, but even if it hadn't - it sure is fucking sunk now after his run.

I'd say the best we have to hope for is their learning from their mistakes and doing a better job on DDO2.  But let's face it, even if they scraped it all and started over, it would still be a cluster fuck because - Turbine.
  

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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #53 - Sep 30th, 2015 at 1:05pm
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Angry wrote on Sep 30th, 2015 at 2:44am:
Blah blah woof woof


Have I ever told you how much your long posts bore me? No offence.

Sorry if I get tired of "omg, Turbine is releasing new shit without fixing the old".

How the fuck do you expect Turbine to actually fix anything, with what? A handful of staff that knows very little about the code they're working with?


Are you sure?


I knew it, you guys are all whores!


I would expect them to already know. The question is.. do they care?

You must be a really miserable cunt IRL.

You need help.
  

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We are dreamers, shapers, singers, and makers. We study the mysteries of laser and circuit, crystal and scanner, holographic demons and invocation of equations. These are the tools we employ, and we know many things.

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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #54 - Sep 30th, 2015 at 1:51pm
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Lets wait for the data center move...

I'd make a few educated guesses to support the above statement, but since most of you don't listen to them it would be a waste of my time.

  

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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #55 - Sep 30th, 2015 at 3:19pm
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Flav wrote on Sep 30th, 2015 at 1:51pm:
Lets wait for the data center move...

I'd make a few educated guesses to support the above statement, but since most of you don't listen to them it would be a waste of my time.


LMAO! I realize now that by "above statement" you mean your own regarding the datacenter, but the first couple of times I read it, I thought you meant Technomage's post! I did a serious triple take  Shocked
  

Turdbin, keep changing the DDO rules, because McDonalds sold over 200 billion hamburgers by changing the recipe for their Special Sauce every couple of months to keep interest up.
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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #56 - Sep 30th, 2015 at 4:44pm
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DropBear wrote on Sep 29th, 2015 at 8:41pm:
Maybe someone at WB with some business acumen will read some of the more useful stuff and wonder what is happening in their subsidiary.

Forget this ever happening.

You fundamentally mis-understand how executives work in the entertainment business.  They don't give a shit about DDO.  It's the size of a tick on the ass of their division revenues, a piece of bacterium on the behemoth that is Warner Brothers, and non-existent in the view of the ultimate parent, Time Warner.  If DDO squeals up the executive chain outside Turbine for resources, the first thing an "executive" is going to say is, "What the fuck is that product?", followed by, "Just shut it down give me the budget savings."  He/she pads their resume and moves on.  There's no glory in saving the blood-hungry tick from getting crushed.

The only reason DDOs still kicking is no one pays attention.  If execs were half as ruthless with Turbine as they are with Cartoon Network shows, they would've already had the next 5 years worth of updates in the can and everyone working on it would've been fired already.  You'd just be waiting for the updates to drop one by one.  And, as soon as the executives figure out how to do that with video games, that's exactly what they will do. 

You'd best be hoping no one at WB ever pays attention, ever.  Roll Eyes
« Last Edit: Sep 30th, 2015 at 4:44pm by iliveyourdream13 »  
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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #57 - Sep 30th, 2015 at 6:44pm
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iliveyourdream13 wrote on Sep 30th, 2015 at 4:44pm:
Forget this ever happening.

You fundamentally mis-understand how executives work in the entertainment business.  They don't give a shit about DDO.  It's the size of a tick on the ass of their division revenues, a piece of bacterium on the behemoth that is Warner Brothers, and non-existent in the view of the ultimate parent, Time Warner.  If DDO squeals up the executive chain outside Turbine for resources, the first thing an "executive" is going to say is, "What the fuck is that product?", followed by, "Just shut it down give me the budget savings."  He/she pads their resume and moves on.  There's no glory in saving the blood-hungry tick from getting crushed.

The only reason DDOs still kicking is no one pays attention.  If execs were half as ruthless with Turbine as they are with Cartoon Network shows, they would've already had the next 5 years worth of updates in the can and everyone working on it would've been fired already.  You'd just be waiting for the updates to drop one by one.  And, as soon as the executives figure out how to do that with video games, that's exactly what they will do. 

You'd best be hoping no one at WB ever pays attention, ever.  Roll Eyes



Fair enough.  I defer to your experience with WB.  Sounds plausible enough.
If that is the way that industry works, then so be it.  What a sad mercenary way to run a business.

DDO has to stay to off the radar.

  
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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #58 - Oct 1st, 2015 at 1:09am
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DropBear wrote on Sep 30th, 2015 at 10:19am:
Sure.
1, 2, 3 snip...


Sounds good all round to me.

You reminded me of what Arena Net used to do with Guild Wars 1 when it was still being actively updated and had a massive player base. They would hold competitions for skills bars of Henchmen (~hirelings) when a new set of Henchmen had to be released. They followed the same style as Guild Wars 2 of 8 skills based on class and were separated for PvP and PvE. Players would earn various rewards like free accounts, mini-pets (cosmetic pets), rare weapon, armour or shield skins and massive amounts of rare materials and the likes that players could use and benefit from.

Turdbine could easily hold something similar for hireling skill bars and gear, starter build templates for pure classes and so forth and the rewards can be cosmetics, TP or whatever else that's nice. Not that hard to make all the players do the hard work of balancing the game if you dangle some form of reward for them that will get them motivated.

Heck, a simple Turdbine sponsored competition can be easily held for class balance to see what class performs best. There is a speed run records page on the mobos for a basic idea. Get players to run speed records of quest x, y and z as build archetype a, b or c and collect data from it. A simple round of stats can do wonders for a lot of things.

This all has to be done correctly of course. Some players might throw their tantrums as certain nerfs hit but if the overall result is mostly positive, then it can become a thing.
  
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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #59 - Oct 1st, 2015 at 1:47am
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Galadriel wrote on Oct 1st, 2015 at 1:09am:
Sounds good all round to me.

You reminded me of what Arena Net used to do with Guild Wars 1 when it was still being actively updated and had a massive player base. They would hold competitions for skills bars of Henchmen (~hirelings) when a new set of Henchmen had to be released. They followed the same style as Guild Wars 2 of 8 skills based on class and were separated for PvP and PvE. Players would earn various rewards like free accounts, mini-pets (cosmetic pets), rare weapon, armour or shield skins and massive amounts of rare materials and the likes that players could use and benefit from.

Turdbine could easily hold something similar for hireling skill bars and gear, starter build templates for pure classes and so forth and the rewards can be cosmetics, TP or whatever else that's nice. Not that hard to make all the players do the hard work of balancing the game if you dangle some form of reward for them that will get them motivated.

Heck, a simple Turdbine sponsored competition can be easily held for class balance to see what class performs best. There is a speed run records page on the mobos for a basic idea. Get players to run speed records of quest x, y and z as build archetype a, b or c and collect data from it. A simple round of stats can do wonders for a lot of things.

This all has to be done correctly of course. Some players might throw their tantrums as certain nerfs hit but if the overall result is mostly positive, then it can become a thing.


Absolutely.

Niche game with a limited size?  Engage that player base and keep them loyal - it's your only choice (unless you have some schmuck telling you that you can go mainstream by changing the all the core aspects of the game to make it more homogenous....).
The only problem with the strategy is you're positioning yourself out of your niche and into a competitive market with a 9+yrs old game.  And with the current state of the game, you haven't got a hope in hell of competing with the other titles.

The depth, complexity and steep learning curve does not appeal to the mainstream - accept that as your competitive advantage and move on.  No-one would have the cajones to design and release a game like DDO in the current market where attention spans are measured by time on the shitter.  Be happy in that less competitive environment DDO.

Regarding your suggestions Galadriel, yes they should use the playerbase - particularly for testing and research.  It can do no harm whatsoever.
As you said, make it fun, give prizes and kudos and the players will love you.
And if they want to keep the feedback to themselves (to not telegraph future nerfs), don't do it via forums - have an in-game tool that feeds directly into a database.
You can then do with that info as you please.

My only comment to you Galadriel is that in designing class paths, they don't need to be the best - they need to be easy to play and competitive.  So minimise button mashing and builds that require reusing haste scrolls every 30 seconds.

Your experienced players will never use pre-defined paths, so it is for the new players only.  The worst thing that happens now is people invest 5-10 levels developing one of these paths to realise (or be told by the many less charitable vets) their toon is "gimp".  So they're either faced with starting again or abandoning the game.  Guess which happens more often?

The only thing standing in the way of these good ideas is Turdbine hubris (cultural) and an for the devs to be able to admit they're not omniscient.     Undecided
« Last Edit: Oct 1st, 2015 at 5:46am by DropBear »  
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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #60 - Oct 1st, 2015 at 2:04am
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What is dead may never die...
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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #61 - Oct 1st, 2015 at 2:24am
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Technomage wrote on Sep 30th, 2015 at 1:05pm:
You must be a really miserable cunt IRL.

You need help.


Now, why would you go and say a thing like that?  Cry

Oh, right. Are you offering to help? I would need someone to do the dishes and clean and stuff, so we don't need to do that stuff.

Oh, and if you could give the day more hours, that would help too.
  
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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #62 - Oct 1st, 2015 at 4:48am
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DropBear wrote on Oct 1st, 2015 at 1:47am:
My only comment to you Galadriel is that in designing class paths, they don't need to be the best - they need to be easy to play and competitive.  So minimise button mashing and builds that require reusing haste scrolls every 30 seconds.


Yeah, my apologies. That was the idea but I didn't state it very well. Very basic and newbie friendly yet still potent enough to not be an inventory slot in somebodies pocket even for a player who has a massive learning curve ahead of them. Your above average build designer can design multitudes of builds like this that can cater to 28/32 point builds which are still usable. It is mostly to avoid this:

DropBear wrote on Oct 1st, 2015 at 1:47am:
The worst thing that happens now is people invest 5-10 levels developing one of these paths to realise (or be told by the many less charitable vets) their toon is "gimp".  So they're either faced with starting again or abandoning the game.  Guess which happens more often?


The builds don't have to be 100% optimal. They just have to be well rounded in a lot of aspects and, for lack of a better phrase, "average".

A tutorial stage where players can replicate combat for them to see what the end level feels like and it's well explained can be used as well. I keep thinking back to the intro to Dragon Age 2. It has you play a high level character to get a feel for the style within the first 5 minutes of the game. If you don't like that style, you can reroll and you just loose 10-15 minutes. You also have something to work towards. Not ideal but it could work.



* Important part stops at ~5:50. May be too much to ever hope for Sad but it's something.

DropBear wrote on Oct 1st, 2015 at 1:47am:
The only thing standing in the way of these good ideas is Turdbine hubris (cultural) and an for the devs to be able to admit they're not omnipotent.    


I have always hated cultures like this. Pity really. If you can't admit you're wrong, the very least you can do is fix the issue at hand so that you are not wrong at the end of the day. Best of both worlds really.

DropBear wrote on Oct 1st, 2015 at 1:47am:
if they want to keep the feedback to themselves (to not telegraph future nerfs), don't do it via forums - have an in-game tool that feeds directly into a database.


Forums serve a dual purpose in this regard. It helps weed out the competent from the exceptional. Also keeps the work load lower. However you have a biased set of information as, if taken only from top tier players, the results you get will only cater to the top tier players and will not address any form of casual play. This is good for presenting challenge like the mythical "Reaper" difficulty and for showing limits of classes but bad for those that are happy staying in Epic Hard and get challenged by Epic Elite for example. The in-game tool on the other hand will collect everything submitted but the amount of work to go through all that data will triple, if not more. However your baseline is much more accurate once completed. Largely depends on what you are focusing on at a given time.

On a more off topic note. I was away on a hiatus for a long time so can somebody give me the short version of what did exactly. Quick search shows him as a producer at one time but don't want to read through tons of pages for an answer.
  
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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #63 - Oct 1st, 2015 at 5:59am
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Concise version: (after have done a weekend course in business marketing 101), Fernando appears to have established the current Turdbine business model and is credited with having said that Loyal customers will buy whatever shit you serve them, because they're loyal.
In other words, treat your loyal customers like schmucks and this philosophy has become the Turdbine culture.

MajMal indicated that Fernando is deeply entrenched as part of the Turdbine middle mgmt.  That might have been a typo and I think he meant "embedded in Turdbine mgmt."  Like neck deep and still kissing.

His wife Kate also likes to kick around the power halls of Turdbine too, and can probably be accredited with the consistent and amazing decline of LOTRO in recent years.

A family effort to bring down two amazing IP's with hamster level intelligence and incompetence.  GJ Paiz's!   Angry
  
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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #64 - Oct 1st, 2015 at 6:41am
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Thanks for the reply and all I have to say is just wow....
  
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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #65 - Oct 1st, 2015 at 8:10am
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DropBear wrote on Oct 1st, 2015 at 1:47am:
The depth, complexity and steep learning curve does not appeal to the mainstream - accept that as your competitive advantage and move on.  No-one would have the cajones to design and release a game like DDO in the current market where attention spans are measured by time on the shitter.  Be happy in that less competitive environment DDO.


Not sure I necessarily agree with this with the recent spate of popular and complex RPGs hitting the market, a la Pillars of Eternity, Torment: Tides of Numenara, Divinity: Original Sin, Wasteland 2, etc etc, they have all been wildly successful (within the constraints of Indie games). With some marketing to try and target those consumers, I think you could definitely on-board a bunch of people. But sigh... Turbine.
  
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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #66 - Oct 1st, 2015 at 9:17am
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Ipad again today, but regarding the exchange between DropBear and Galadriel, I really like the idea of player designed paths, crappy paths do far more damage to the game than the harbor layout they spent so much time changing.

There is room for an arbitrary number of paths, make some for each class be mostly passive and others more active, and explain that in the description.

Also, give each path designer a web page to explain why the choices were made and how to play the class, and link to it from the ingame description. The page could be in the builds section of the forum or on the wiki, but anywhere the builder has some space to tell a new or very casual player how to make the best use of the path and if it's a good fit for what the player wants.

And above all, give credit to the player that designed the path, few incentives better motivate quality work than having your reputation tied to it.

This would benefit the game far more than raising the level cap again would Roll Eyes
  

Turdbin, keep changing the DDO rules, because McDonalds sold over 200 billion hamburgers by changing the recipe for their Special Sauce every couple of months to keep interest up.
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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #67 - Oct 1st, 2015 at 7:59pm
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totally wrote on Oct 1st, 2015 at 8:10am:
Not sure I necessarily agree with this with the recent spate of popular and complex RPGs hitting the market, a la Pillars of Eternity, Torment: Tides of Numenara, Divinity: Original Sin, Wasteland 2, etc etc, they have all been wildly successful (within the constraints of Indie games). With some marketing to try and target those consumers, I think you could definitely on-board a bunch of people. But sigh... Turbine.


I am happy to be corrected if I am mistaken mate.
I don't have the time to follow games much these days and just go on recommendations from friends.

So do these new games compare favourably to DDO on build options, development paths, specialisations, quest options/storylines to level, replayability?

I find the Path of Exile character builder quite nice - very customisable, simple enough to build anything and play standard difficulty.
But the trade-off is the semi-Rigid storylines with occasional optionals and no TR'ing as best as I can tell.

I find PoE enjoyable because it is easy to get into and play for short periods that I tend to have.  DDO is les amenable to this - get interrupted half way through a quest and you get nada.

What I have found less enjoyable is the fixed point of view and the lack of movement controls.  The click and go system can be a little annoying.  For me at least, there is less tactical positioning in PoE - it is just stand and deliver.

Dragon Age was enjoyable, but the story was fairly rigid, and the customisability was limited too.

Any new game is going to struggle to compete with 9 years of development of DDO for content.  What hurts DDO is when they make that older content redundant through crap XP, obsolete loot or just unfun.




  
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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #68 - Oct 1st, 2015 at 8:08pm
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DropBear wrote on Oct 1st, 2015 at 7:59pm:
Any new game is going to struggle to compete with 9 years of development of DDO for content.  What hurts DDO is when they make that older content redundant through crap XP, obsolete loot or just unfun.

Yeah, this. Stupidest. Idea. EVAR.

The ton of content is the only advantage that a new competitor can't mimic. Well, other than the fanbase, but that's well below 20k at this point, the Pathfinder Online kickstarter started with 3 times that.

And Turdbin throws it away to drive people to new content that otherwise isn't good enough to buy for the fun of play aspect.
  

Turdbin, keep changing the DDO rules, because McDonalds sold over 200 billion hamburgers by changing the recipe for their Special Sauce every couple of months to keep interest up.
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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #69 - Oct 1st, 2015 at 8:17pm
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Meursault wrote on Oct 1st, 2015 at 8:08pm:
The ton of content is the only advantage that a new competitor can't mimic.

Do you hear that Turbine? No MIMICS.
  

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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #70 - Oct 1st, 2015 at 8:57pm
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DropBear wrote on Sep 30th, 2015 at 6:44pm:
Fair enough.  I defer to your experience with WB.  Sounds plausible enough.
If that is the way that industry works, then so be it.  What a sad mercenary way to run a business.

It helps to never confuse the "entertainment" you consume, with the business process by which that sausage that you generally find tasty gets made.  Especially when it's one of the biggest sausage makers in the world.

The best thing that can happen, if you like the game, is someone peel DDO out of Turbine.  When and how, that's to be seen.  Where does an MMO go when it dies?  Does it truly die?  Questions the market hasn't really answered yet.
  
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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #71 - Oct 1st, 2015 at 9:23pm
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totally wrote on Oct 1st, 2015 at 8:10am:
Not sure I necessarily agree with this with the recent spate of popular and complex RPGs hitting the market, a la Pillars of Eternity, Torment: Tides of Numenara, Divinity: Original Sin, Wasteland 2, etc etc, they have all been wildly successful (within the constraints of Indie games). With some marketing to try and target those consumers, I think you could definitely on-board a bunch of people. But sigh... Turbine.

Torment/Wasteland 2 (both of which I kicked money to) are the lesson that's proves the rule though.  The upside on W2 was enough to pay a very lean staff, who were also top tier and already wealthy to boot (for the most part ), to make said games.  They are wildly successful within the Indie market, but let's look at the actual numbers:

As of March 2013, W2 was the 56th most popular game on Steam

56      Wasteland 2      9/18/2014      332354      384760      11076800      inXile Entertainment      inXile Entertainment

Wasteland started with roughly 50k owners @ 4M (I've rounded in W2s favor on each number), and as of March, had 384k "owners".  Extrapolating the 4M/50k across 400k, we get about 32M.  Now, that's for about 6+ Months of game sales based on when W2 dropped, but undoubtedly, the big hump has passed and W2 will be a long thin tail of sales from here on out, so W2 isn't going to double 32M in 6 more months.  In fact, it looks like W2 has capped out on Steam at around 475K backers.  Let's round up and say 500K, bumping our year revenue to 40M. 

Not bad right?  Certainly not in Indie terms, but let's consider the competition running under "traditional" management, and we can see the difference in two sentences.

Without getting into game costs or net, Candy Crush does 800K+ in Revenue Per Day.  Another way of saying that is nearly 300M in revenue in a given year.

You understand now why executives don't give a shit about complicated games?  No one gets to be VP of WBE or TW by hitting singles.  W2, that's a nice single (a home run in Indie Terms), but CC, it's a fucking home run, over the stands and out of the park, and executives care about home runs.  Think of them like Jose Canseco or Mark McGwuire, they always swing for the fences.  Can indie developers churns out some good games, sure.  I'm quite friendly with the second guy ever hired at DoubleFine who did artwork for all their early titles.  But, is it the same numbers that will make executives go, "Gee, consumers want complex, riveting, engrossing, games!"  Not on your life.

But, from this you can guage the max market size, approx 500K, that give a shit about complex games, made by the best developers.  That's not a big market, not when you consider the size of the gross population it comes out of.
« Last Edit: Oct 1st, 2015 at 9:27pm by iliveyourdream13 »  
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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #72 - Oct 2nd, 2015 at 12:36am
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A bottled water manufacturer does not really compete with a high-end restaurant.
  

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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #73 - Oct 2nd, 2015 at 1:28am
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Revaulting wrote on Oct 1st, 2015 at 8:17pm:
Meursault wrote Yesterday at 8:08pm:
The ton of content is the only advantage that a new competitor can't mimic.

Do you hear that Turbine? No MIMICS.


Niche have never actually being accredited with the word "popular" however. The advantage is there however and its sad that it's not being used. I don't even see those random DDO ads anymore. I still remember the one with the broccoli.
  
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Re: U27 raid not fixed?-Why release U28?! WTF!?
Reply #74 - Oct 2nd, 2015 at 7:21am
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iliveyourdream13 wrote on Oct 1st, 2015 at 9:23pm:
But, from this you can guage the max market size, approx 500K, that give a shit about complex games, made by the best developers.  That's not a big market, not when you consider the size of the gross population it comes out of.


Sure, if you compare a niche indie game to one of the most popular IPs in the world it's not going to stand up; my point stands, which is that there has been a resurgent interest in recent years around complex RPGs and they are still being made. If turbine could tap into some of that interest it would be a big boost. 500k may not be a lot in terms of single purchase, but if you could attract 10% of those players, I suspect you'd be doubling the current player base of DDO, and if 10% of those players picked up a VIP sub, that's looking like a pretty fat pay day for any pointy-headed douchebag.

DropBear wrote on Oct 1st, 2015 at 7:59pm:
So do these new games compare favourably to DDO on build options, development paths, specialisations, quest options/storylines to level, replayability?


Short answer, yes. They're CRPGs, the whole point is complex customization Tongue
  
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