totally wrote on Oct 1
st, 2015 at 8:10am:
Not sure I necessarily agree with this with the recent spate of popular and complex RPGs hitting the market, a la Pillars of Eternity, Torment: Tides of Numenara, Divinity: Original Sin, Wasteland 2, etc etc, they have all been wildly successful (within the constraints of Indie games). With some marketing to try and target those consumers, I think you could definitely on-board a bunch of people. But sigh... Turbine.
Torment/Wasteland 2 (both of which I kicked money to) are the lesson that's proves the rule though. The upside on W2 was enough to pay a very lean staff, who were also top tier and already wealthy to boot (for the most part ), to make said games. They are wildly successful within the Indie market, but let's look at the actual numbers:
As of March 2013, W2 was the 56th most popular game on Steam
56 Wasteland 2 9/18/2014 332354 384760 11076800 inXile Entertainment inXile Entertainment
Wasteland started with roughly 50k owners @ 4M (I've rounded in W2s favor on each number), and as of March, had 384k "owners". Extrapolating the 4M/50k across 400k, we get about 32M. Now, that's for about 6+ Months of game sales based on when W2 dropped, but undoubtedly, the big hump has passed and W2 will be a long thin tail of sales from here on out, so W2 isn't going to double 32M in 6 more months. In fact, it looks like W2 has capped out on Steam at around 475K backers. Let's round up and say 500K, bumping our year revenue to 40M.
Not bad right? Certainly not in Indie terms, but let's consider the competition running under "traditional" management, and we can see the difference in two sentences.
Without getting into game costs or net, Candy Crush does 800K+
in Revenue Per Day. Another way of saying that is nearly 300M in revenue in a given year.
You understand now why executives don't give a shit about complicated games? No one gets to be VP of WBE or TW by hitting singles. W2, that's a nice single (a home run in Indie Terms), but CC, it's a fucking home run, over the stands and out of the park, and executives care about home runs. Think of them like Jose Canseco or Mark McGwuire, they always swing for the fences. Can indie developers churns out some good games, sure. I'm quite friendly with the second guy ever hired at DoubleFine who did artwork for all their early titles. But, is it the same numbers that will make executives go, "Gee, consumers want complex, riveting, engrossing, games!" Not on your life.
But, from this you can guage the max market size, approx 500K, that give a shit about complex games, made by the best developers. That's not a big market, not when you consider the size of the gross population it comes out of.