Galadriel wrote on Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 1:28am:

I agree they have that advantage over existing games, my point is a new competitor could choose to go after the exact same niche and it would cost no more than targeting any other market segment. Turbine could entrench themselves by keeping all of their content relevant, and it would cost a new competitor a huge amount of developer time to match it.

But if Turbine makes their old content irrelevant in order to force players to buy the new content, they hurt themselves twice. Once because new players have no reason to buy the old content, and the second time because a new competitor doesn't have to match the whole content library, just the recent additions.

So their "strategy" of releasing new content with gear and XP that eclipses what's available from old content is really just killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.

And it hurts them in more ways, too. They have to pay to develop the new content, and the new content doesn't come fast enough to keep players engaged for long, so they bleed players between updates. If all the old content was as relevant as the new, or at least close, they would have better retention between updates.

Considering DDO can't keep a producer more than 9 months, this shortsighted selling out the future is hardly surprising, but it's no less sad for that.

totally wrote on Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 7:21am:

There hasn't been any proof of resurgent interest.  There was an unmet desire in the market, which itself isn't proof of resurgency.  Understanding how niche markets work is key to understanding why more complex RPGs aren't getting green-lit by large companies.  The reason there's been indie success, is because indie's can be successful with a small 'success' where something like a WB needs 'SUCCESS'.

Love for complex RPGs never died, or really waned, it just has a natural demand ceiling far far far lower than the total gaming market size which has grown tremendously with the advent of smartphones.  Because of consolidation, larger companies saw that niche market as a trivial one to bother investing in.  The reason pointy-headed types don't see your logic is because no matter how you slice it, in a large company, the revenues for something like DDO, even with granting 50k subs, are a rounding error when it starts getting compared to the other slices of revenue in the division.  You likely think they're big dollars because you're comparing it to the amount of money you have as reference point.  When working a large companies books, it becomes clear why those dollars are negligible.

Niche luxury markets, and that's exactly what complex RPGs are, are never well served by corporate behemoths.  It's exactly the situation DDO finds itself in, and it will continue that way until DDO ceases to be owned by a behemoth, or dies.  There's a reason Target doesn't sell true luxury goods, and it's the same principle.  Just because you 'theoretically' have access to WB capital doesn't mean you're going to get it.  Considering the debacle IC was, I'd be leery of any more investment in MMOs if I was an existing exec. (since most exec don't give a shit about the content itself).  If Turbine had quality management, they wouldn't be a constant revolving door. 

Turbine could do a lot of things, but one thing Turbine will never do is wake up one day and not be Turbine, and that's really all there is to it.

Whoever's running Path of Exile seems to have done a good job. Don't know how much they're making, or even how many players they have, but they've kept the lights on for the last few years selling nothing but cosmetics and bag space.

iliveyourdream13 wrote on Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 5:39pm:

Yeah, I've read a few interviews, and they are really well grounded. Their goal was to make a game they wanted to play, and to make it available to others if they were so inclined.

Their popularity really surprised them, at least according to one interview I read. I'm into them for a few hundred at this point, just because I want my game spending to be a vote for quality. Pretty much the same reason I've spent nothing on DDO for the past 2 years.

My dream is that one day they'll decide they want to play a FRPMMO.

iliveyourdream13 wrote on Oct 2^nd, 2015 at 1:47pm:


Can't really argue with that!

Gotcha, thanks.

Galadriel wrote on Oct 5^th, 2015 at 2:20am:

But only for 1 segment of the population. You mention the TR crew, which keeps lower level content relevant, but there are also new players (I know, not many, but still...) and alt-aholics too. You can keep re-playing lower levels in a variety of ways if you don't want to sit at cap and run end-game raids.

The complexity and practically infinite number of combinations could keep even the most hard core obsessive compulsive player busy for a lifetime (playing all classes on all races with no more than 2 splash levels of a single class gives over 130 years of playing assuming you can level to 20 and TR in 24 hours per life, and that's without considering different enhancement trees).

So making some content below cap obsolete by making other content at that level much better, it's not the same as new high level content and a new cap overshadowing the old cap and cap content. In the later case they still have to run something at the old cap level, and the old cap content is a perfect choice. It let's them continue to get life out of the old even as they put out the new.

But that's not what they've done. They've introduced new content at the same level as other content, and made the new content so much better it eclipses the old.

I contend that changes like that make Turbine vulnerable to future competition without giving them a significant advantage.

I know why they did it - they can squeeze a short term profit that way. But they are selling their future to do it.

Of course, that bothers me far more than it bothers them, I've been here far longer than any DDO producers has held a job, so why shouldn't they consider a 5 month plan "the distant future". And to think I used to laugh at Soviet Russia's "5 year plan", what a riot!

Meursault wrote on Oct 5^th, 2015 at 7:46pm:


While I understand where you're coming from, I have to point out that the focus of the game has changed a bit as well. Experience/min seems to matter far more today to the majority of players than immersive content. If there was a steady and stable/increasing income of new players than the focus of content might change to not just being experience/min but also immersion.

Meursault wrote on Oct 5^th, 2015 at 7:46pm:


This seems common among small time business's or side of the road projects. Make enough in the next few months to stay afloat so that funding for the next thing that can make some money is available. Can also sometimes see it when budget limits have been reached and it's just done for a temp boost in sales to allow a bit more budget their way from either the sales or the bean counters. In Turdbines case, I honestly cannot say which it is.

Meursault wrote on Oct 5^th, 2015 at 7:46pm:


I believe a lot of us can second this.

Galadriel wrote on Oct 6^th, 2015 at 2:14am:

I see your point too, and agree somewhat, but I can't get over thinking it's a chicken and the egg problem. New players are not a viable revenue stream, but is that the symptom or the cause. I think it's a symptom of the unhealthy aproach Turdbin has taken. I can't prove that I'm right on that count, but I think the spike in server logins when the default server changes shows they get a steady and significant stream of new players, and the fact that the spike trails to background levels over the next 3 weeks or so shows those players don't stay.

Turbine barely advertises, so those players are drawn by the IP and by word of mouth, meaning they have a much better chance than the average video gamer of liking the complexity DDO offers. They are high quality potential customers.

But they log on to servers where the few low level runs are Elite BB BYOH Zerg runs. The players who might be meandering through testing a new build or race are instead speeding to the end again to farm the crap out of the new pack before they nerf the drop rates to oblivion, or grabbing their 3 past lives before they nerf the new wildly OP class. And how many of those speeders are enjoying the content, as opposed to just picking the fastest way through before Turbine screws them over?

I can't prove it, but for the sake of discussion I'll assert that if Turbine stopped changing the rules and instead focused on delivering new content with the same reward power as existing content, new players would find a much more welcoming environment as experienced players took more leisurely strolls through heroic lives. Some would still zerg, but enough wouldn't to make a much better community.

And furthermore, there wouldn't be as much of a power gap for new players to overcome, meaning they wouldn't get discouraged and quit because they trail the kill count and spent half the quest in somebody's backpack.

Regarding your speculation that it might be a financial expediency, I spent many months believing that to be the case, supporting them with point purchases to help them through the tough time. But it's been years now, they keep making the same bad choices again and again, and I've run out of sympathy.

OldCoaly wrote on Oct 6^th, 2015 at 5:39pm:


THIS!!!

OldCoaly wrote on Oct 6^th, 2015 at 5:39pm:

I think casual players have it the worst as they've seen enough to know about planning your build in advance but take long enough to level that they can never finish a build because the changes are so drastic and so frequent.

Given how Turbine has positioned overall difficulty to appeal to casual players, this seems insane.

Toke wrote on Oct 7^th, 2015 at 7:47am:

LMAO! I'm sorry it happened to you, but appreciate the laugh from you sharing it! I've got a cleric at 20 I was trying to decide if I should TR, but maybe I'll leave him sit a while. Let me know when you're done with your cleric life so I can prepare him for godhood