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DDO and the Current Tech+Gaming Crash
Dec 6th, 2018 at 1:31pm
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The NASDAQ is down about 10% with most signs pointing to an upcoming bear market. The bitcoin bubble popped which is great since it seems to have not hurt any other markets (besides NVIDIA). In fact the decreasing amount of power being dedicated to bitcoin are a positive for energy prices. And we all get cheaper graphics cards. Bitcoin was the peak of "irrational exuberance."

All of the gaming companies are headed south though, and this tends to affect the development of big budget games. We will maybe see the closing of a major gaming company in the next year. DDO is owned privately by Daybreak games mongols---but this doesn't mean that the investors for DDO aren't aware of the bigger picture. (Tinfoil hat on.) I hope we're a front for Russian money laundering because then we'll stay open. (Tinfoil hat off.)

The release of this limited time "Season Pass" looks like Standing Stone Games needs an extra $300,000 for the expansion development RIGHT NOW. The release of the pre-order package for Ravenloft was in March of 2018. The goods were redeemable on October 17, 2018 and the expansion launched on December 7th of 2018. (There was a caveat that it might release even up to a month later.) Sharn has hinted to be released by this spring; however, we haven't gotten a pre-order yet. The pre-order for Ravenloft came out 10 months before Ravenloft lauched. A trailer launched that March (however primitive) and we still don't have a trailer.

Typically DDO releases a small F2P pack before a content drought leading up to a major expansion. (Look back at the dark times before MOTU, the 3 quest pre-release for Shadowfell, and the skipped update period before Ravenloft.) For this reason, Sharn looks to be the NEXT THING.

I really expected to see the Pre-orders for Sharn drop with the release of this F2P teaser pack. Instead we got a poorly thought out plea for money. We haven't seen Tiefling on Lammania and we probably won't for a few more months. (Steelstar is the only one doing enhancement trees AFAIK.) If previous content droughts are accurate then we shouldn't expect to see the release of Sharn for another 4-5 months. This puts the release of Sharn in April or May. Unfortunately the bear market might affect us. If SSG fucks up with Sharn then our investor will likely "close shop" as we head into the next recession. The lack of a release of Pre-orders, as well as any visual teaser, does not bode will for us power-gaming retards.

On the bright side, it appears that LOTRO's legendary servers were a hit. LOTRO was even getting positive press from World of Warcraft streamers following the flop of their latest expansion, Battle for Azeroth. At least in the short-term we should be able to ride on their coat-tails for a while longer---even if SSG fucks ourselves over with a low-quality Sharn release. What are your thoughts on this?

~

Good more general video on the gaming market if you're looking for a slow look through stuff:
« Last Edit: Dec 6th, 2018 at 1:45pm by WonderfulFoppyBint »  

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volt_ wrote on Mar 23rd, 2017 at 4:43pm:
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Re: DDO and the Current Tech+Gaming Crash
Reply #1 - Dec 7th, 2018 at 3:00am
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WonderfulFoppyBint wrote on Dec 6th, 2018 at 1:31pm:
Bitcoin was the peak of "irrational exuberance."

You surely underestimate humanity. Or overestimate our rationality. W/e.
  

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Re: DDO and the Current Tech+Gaming Crash
Reply #2 - Dec 7th, 2018 at 5:09am
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If only there had been some way to make a ton of money on black Friday...like literally every other freaking business in the US did.

If they need money they need to be contacting old players and offering deep discounts on subscriptions for them to return (via email, a tactic they should have been utilizing years ago - when people still checked their emails).

They also need to learn how to do a 1-2 punch on their sales.  Offer up 50% discounts on on superficial but still wanted crap (augment bags, but mostly cosmetics - not mirrors of glamming) where people will burn through their back stock of points, then hit them with 35% discounts on races and classes where they're more likely to spend money they normally wouldn't spend for points.

They should be doing way more cash only packages too.  People will drop ten bucks to pick up a unique outfit and a permanent hire or pet with a handful of random other garbage thrown in.  Game companies that thrive and survive know how to make a quick buck.  You keep people invested in the game by letting them basically play for free, then make your profit by selling them crap they don't need at a low cost.
  

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Re: DDO and the Current Tech+Gaming Crash
Reply #3 - Dec 7th, 2018 at 8:04am
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A couple of disagreements with WFB's post:

1)  The stock market "crash" is more of a general economic thing which affects all stocks.  Which the clip maker correctly attributes to fed interest rate changes and tariff concerns, amongst other global factors.   That doesn't mean the gaming sector itself is in danger.   All data points to strong revenues from the gaming industry.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/201093/revenue-of-the-us-video-game-industry...

Recent trend lines are ahead of last year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/18/video-game-industry-is-booming-with-continued-re...

Nothing within the industry or consumer spending estimates has changed since this mid year forecast.   

The gaming industry is doing just fine.   

2)  The pre-order for ravenloft did not come out 10 months before the expansion.  Is your memory really that bad?  It was just last year. 

https://www.ddo.com/forums/showthread.php/490550-Ravenloft-is-now-available-to-p...

It came out 1 month prior to original release date.  About 6-7 weeks prior to actual release date.


« Last Edit: Dec 7th, 2018 at 8:05am by Asheras »  
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Re: DDO and the Current Tech+Gaming Crash
Reply #4 - Dec 7th, 2018 at 11:57am
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You know the various policies that The Orange Clown in the White House has passed to create taxes barriers on trades and his willingness to create more and more does put the industry and the finance ( read the whole stock market ) into an era of uncertainty. What those industry and finance do in case of uncertainty is closed the money door and wait to see how far, how big it's going to blow up.

Basically The Orange Clown is making he market go down with his idiocy.... because the market don't like what he's doing and try to protecct it's investments.

  

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Re: DDO and the Current Tech+Gaming Crash
Reply #5 - Dec 7th, 2018 at 9:32pm
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WonderfulFoppyBint wrote on Dec 6th, 2018 at 1:31pm:
On the bright side, it appears that LOTRO's legendary servers were a hit. LOTRO was even getting positive press from World of Warcraft streamers following the flop of their latest expansion


I wonder how much more successful the "legendary" servers would be if SSG wasn't lazy and actually created a real classic lotro progression server. At the very least balance the raids/loot/bosses. Currently the raid bosses are piss easy and were not scaled properly. Also the best items are simply attained by solo quests. They should at least buff the raid bosses health/damage and buff the raid loot so its best in slot.

I think there's a good opportunity to do something like this in DDO. Its clear that SSG is either lazy or simply incapable of creating a legit classic server set to Update 13. So basically we'll get the current game, content locked to level 20 pre-motu (to start off with). The only issue with this is due to years of power creep the best gear would be random gen/crafted gear (+9 stats, +9% seeker/double strike etc). We would be in the exact same predicament as Lotro. No reason to run raids. While it would be fun to start on a fresh start "legendary" server its so painfully broken that it would just ruin the experience. They might as well make a legit pre-motu classic server at that point.

As far as the gaming company stocks. There's no reason to be concerned. Were just at the end of a 10 year bull run. NASDAQ stocks are so over priced its crazy. Just look at the gaming company stocks PE rations. Even after a 50% drop they're STILL over priced. Also the SJW bullshit EA/Dice pulled with BFV is one of the other reasons their stock crashed hard. All the "smart" money are leaving stocks. Just average joes left in the market now.
  

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Re: DDO and the Current Tech+Gaming Crash
Reply #6 - Dec 8th, 2018 at 5:10pm
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Flav wrote on Dec 7th, 2018 at 11:57am:
You know the various policies that The Orange Clown in the White House has passed to create taxes barriers on trades and his willingness to create more and more does put the industry and the finance ( read the whole stock market ) into an era of uncertainty. What those industry and finance do in case of uncertainty is closed the money door and wait to see how far, how big it's going to blow up.

Basically The Orange Clown is making he market go down with his idiocy.... because the market don't like what he's doing and try to protecct it's investments.


Shouldn't you be rioting?
  

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Re: DDO and the Current Tech+Gaming Crash
Reply #7 - Dec 8th, 2018 at 5:34pm
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5 Foot Step wrote on Dec 8th, 2018 at 5:10pm:
Shouldn't you be rioting?


lol
  

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volt_ wrote on Mar 23rd, 2017 at 4:43pm:
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Re: DDO and the Current Tech+Gaming Crash
Reply #8 - Dec 9th, 2018 at 6:43am
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5 Foot Step wrote on Dec 8th, 2018 at 5:10pm:
Shouldn't you be rioting?


I went x-mas shopping Rue de Rivoli ( between the BHV and the Boulevard de Sébastopol... if you google earth the location you'll see where it is )
left the subway in Saint Michel Notre Dame ( Notre Dame exit ) and walked to my destination.... Didn't see anything. after shopping went to Les Halles, through all the small streets in between, and the Boulevard de Sébastopol... except for the fact that I could almost walk in the middle of two of the busiest streets of Paris ( Rue de Rivoli and Boulevarde Sébastopol ), I absolutely didn't see anything special.

riots ( it's not riots, it's anarchists and extreme left/right wing groups that want to kill cops, most of the yellow vests are protesting pacifically ) were happening in Place de La République and somewhere on the Champs Elysées... There's nothing for me to go shopping for at both location.
  

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