Its pretty well known that DDO going f2p saved the game.

Here's some facts on the f2p launch:
1. Player base grew 10x
2. Revenue grew 500%
3. Subs doubled

Companies normally dont post sub numbers. Especially Turbine/SSG. From the research I did it seems like DDO peaked at 80-100k players at launch while quickly falling to 20-30k or even lower.

Looking at WoW sub numbers compared to the Google Trends graph. Its identical until Blizzard choose to stop releasing sub numbers. We know since WoD (the worse expansion only being beaten by the current worst expansion, BFA) subs numbers dropped dramatically. Which Google Trends shows perfectly.

http://i.imgur.com/7VMOymp.png   <--WoW sub numbers

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F021dvx  <--Google Trends, type in World of Warcraft, choose the "online game" option


Now that we know the Google Trends graph is a near perfect match for sub numbers lets look at DDO's server pop over its lifespan.


https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F078r86 <--DDO Google Trend graph. TLDR

http://users.telenet.be/mmodata/Charts/Subs-3.png <--Launch-f2p graph (missing data points from 2007-2010, player base got super low)

http://ddoracle.com/images/MotU_one_year_later.jpg <--MotU expansion to Update 18 graph

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=ddo%20wiki  <-- type in "ddo wiki"


TLDR:
DDO was basically a failure, especially when compared to WoW. The f2p launch saving the game from extinction. MotU gave a very brief resurgence of players just to crash below the levels of pre-motu four months later. Sadly DDO has an even lower population for the past two years than the dark times of 2007-2008.

Metal-Beast wrote on Dec 31^st, 2018 at 12:31pm:


Nothing besides an interesting correlation between Google Trends and mmo player populations. Thought it was worth sharing.

Metal-Beast wrote on Dec 31^st, 2018 at 12:31pm:


The Google Trends graphs that I linked show up to current times. Im not sure where you're getting '2016'.

Metal-Beast wrote on Dec 31^st, 2018 at 12:31pm:


By looking at the Google Trend graph for the game there was a very brief rise in interest. Nov.2017 trends hit 6 from the average of 5, rising to 7 in Dec.2017 (Ravenloft release date), lowering to 6 in Jan.2018, then returning to the average of 5 interest in Feb.2018. DDO Wiki trends show the same thing. Put simply, there was increased interest for three months before returning to normal.

There was no mass exodus like the MotU release but this is to be expected. The vast majority of those who still play ddo (and are willing to pay for an expansion) are vets who will stick with ddo till the very end.

Metal-Beast wrote on Dec 31^st, 2018 at 12:31pm:


One cant deny how much of a failure DDO was/is. It was hailed as a "WoW killer". Turned out it was a very niche mmo that was incredibly close to shutting down shortly after launch. Use the compare feature in Google Trends. Its laughable comparing the two.

Metal-Beast wrote on Dec 31^st, 2018 at 12:31pm:


Agreed.

Rose-tinted Goggles wrote on Jan 1^st, 2019 at 12:29am:


Every MMO is hailed as such.

SWTOR.

Wildstar.

Guild Wars.

Tera.

You go at the king.  You usually miss.

Asheras wrote on Jan 1^st, 2019 at 7:35am:


You're exactly right. In hindsight it seems obvious. Although im sure at the time Turbine didnt see what we see today. I think they overestimated the "Dungeon and Dragons" brand. SOE execs surely did with the Star Wars brand (Star Wars Galaxies). DDO surely being a massive disappointment for Turbine. If you cant beat them, join them #lotro

Quote:


There's a place in time when comparing them works. Saying other mmos failed because they never beat WoW's sub numbers is retarded. DDO launched early 2006. WoW had 6 mil subs at the time. The Turbine execs/investors must have thought to themselves "Surely we can hit 250k subs (or more) with the D&D branding". They never even hit 100k subs. Quickly crashing to less than 50k after 2007. If that isnt a failure then I dont know what is. This was my intention when comparing the two in my tldr.

Quote:


It was never my intention to say DDO is dead, I just thought Google Trends was a good way to see player population in a graph since turbine/ssg never gave us numbers.

Although now that you mention it. IMO ddo is dead (not literally). I started a month after the f2p launch (Oct. 2009). I pity those who werent there to experience ddo at its peak. Current ddo is a shell of its former self. Obviously ddo isnt going to shut down anytime soon but one cant deny how small the player base is today.

Rose-tinted Goggles wrote on Jan 1^st, 2019 at 11:03pm:


I don't think the problem was with the D&D brand.  The brand is strong.   (Maybe not 6 million subscribers strong, but you can run a profitable game and be a success at much lower levels than that)

I'd argue that they didn't lean into the Dungeons and Dragons brand enough.   The biggest issue wasn't that it wasn't "MMO" enough.   The bigger issue is that it wasn't RPG enough.   And they tried to course correct in the wrong direction to capture a wider audience that wasn't pure D&D enthusiasts.   

Dungeons and Dragons did not need to be like every other MMO.   It doesn't need PvP or heavy grind or moar bigger numbers that become meaningless.   D&D should not have characters with 5k-9k HP fighting mobs (even bosses) with 6 million HP.   That's purely an MMO.   As is the single character only unlimited progression model.  That is not consistent with D&D.

They moved the game from close-ish to D&D to being more like other MMOs.   That will bring in MMO lover eyeballs while costing you D&D lover eyeballs.   The idea being that there are more MMO lover eyeballs than D&D lover eyeballs.  The problem with that strategy is that the MMO lover eyeballs are less "sticky" with one game than the D&D lover eyeballs.  So it is short term gain for long term loss.   

Rose-tinted Goggles wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2019 at 10:07am:


Some issues with going from PnP to an MMO:

A big part of the appeal in D&D is the ability for someone to be the Dungeon Master and the fact that the modules are very loosely organized stories.   I've played the exact same module in PnP with different DM's and it felt like totally different experiences.   The rigidness of the dungeons on replay is definitely not the same.

D&D is generally designed around campaigns of the same set of characters adventuring together for an extended period.  Sure gaming groups have players who miss weeks or come and go a bit, but for the most part, you are running a campaign with the same 4-8 people.   Which is more analogous to a static group in an MMO.   Maybe a small guild that only runs inside the guild.   The PUG concept and ability for ANYONE to group with ANYONE independent of story is necessary for an MMO, but a major deviation from how the PnP game is done.  This includes the re-running of content and low drop rates to create gear grinds.   (I mean, I guess there is no problem with re-running content in theory, but you should not get XP or Loot from it after the first run.  Also, most PnP campaigns, loot is shared based on need of the party.  Which only works in a static group environment.  A PUG is not going to share loot like that)

The whole concept of grinds to extend content comes from the flaw that the only content available is developer created.  Traditional PnP campaigns relied heavily on DM created content that incorporated some amount of pre-made content.   In any campaign I played in, the DM created content was 70% or more of the campaign.     Absent that, (and the fact that modules take minutes or an hour to complete instead of months of gaming) you have to use grinds and randomized drops and rerunning content to keep people busy.  Or understand that your game will not be one that is played exclusively or as hours heavily as an MMO.  (I don't know anyone that plays PnP 40-60 hours per week, but there are certainly people playing DDO with that level of intensity).

DDO going into SSG hands was saved from big player's decision [earn $1M/yearly or die]

Plus - since DDO & LOTRO are the only titles that SSG are surfing on - they will live till last subscription money is enough to cover last server bill.

You will literally see Asheron's Call-like decay but over 20+ year lifespan.

It's "safe" from closure for like 7+ more years. Plus extra few years maintenance mode at the end of life.

Oh and D&D franchise with 5e (Adventurer's League etc) is now sky-high popular, so that adds extra credits here.

Oracler wrote on Jan 3^rd, 2019 at 1:36pm:

Was also saved from a big player accidentally throwing talent at them.

Rubbinns wrote on Jan 3^rd, 2019 at 4:09pm:

True, but I think Lynn is mostly responsible for the loot updates and raid flagging changes, which would be great to remove flagging from all of them, while she's at it, eliminate  pack progression requirements and red boxing entirely.  AND get rid of the requirement is quests that make the entire party group up at the end of each phase, those would all be massive improvements.  As to Sev, I cannot unsee that video of him outside that Denny's, there is no going back after that and Steel is more bad than good, he must be the main mechanics dev and he is the definition of mediocre.  SSG overall gets a solid B so far, although they are headed quickly to a B- C+ IMO

Oracler wrote on Jan 3^rd, 2019 at 1:36pm:



Doesnt SSG have to deal with licensing issues with LOTR and D&D? Do they have to pay a portion of revenue or do they just buy the license outright? Also the Seasons Pass and the "Improved" Epic Ottos Box makes me a little skeptical. Something sketchy seems to be going on.

While I agree with you and wouldnt be surprised if DDO is around for another 5 years. I highly doubt 7-10 years. Each year DDO slowly bleeds out vets/whales while getting essentially 0 new players. Sinking Ship Games is a more appropriate name imo.


Kluege wrote on Jan 4^th, 2019 at 2:27pm:


Agreed.

People have been screaming that the sky is falling since before you started playing.