As per the title implies, is RNG not the only thing contributing to named items drop?

I present several examples using my character compared to many other suspicious cases that had me raise an eyebrow

My main toon is extremely unlucky in pulling named items as most of stuff coming from old raids required me to run 20 completions just to give you an idea. raided like 20 times the new raids (from raiding the storms up to too hot to handle) and got 1 named item while the same people I go with had no problems getting 3 or 4. 1 dude in particular seems to get a named EVERY freaking time

Now you may think this is all within RNG and you wouldn't be wrong but the same happens in normal quests. I have been looking for a specific named from a normal quest and ran it over 40 times at EE as minimum and up to R6 just to increase the chances. Still nothing (I gave up today, it's pretty clear at this point I'm wasting my time since even the Rxp had drained to a handful of points)

The same characters that are lucky in raids manage to find all kind of stuff when I'm in group with them. Statistically speaking when can you start consider that RNG might be off (and I don't think it is since it works for other people) or, more likely, there is another hidden factor we cannot check that determines how many named you are going to loot?

Just asking because I recall that Turbine (now SSG) has denied for years there was a hidden loot factor in Asheron's Call until they finally had to admit it? Not really sure about this but I remember reading something about loot controversy in that game

It's not like I tried a few times and I run several chains on high difficulty without seeing a single named. My doubt comes from the high number of tries to get anything (and specific items are even more of a pain to get) compared to how other players seem to find something in every end chest

Do you guys think there is something else other than RNG too?

They swear that the Treasure Hunter's Elixer doesn't do anything to the chance of getting Reaper or Mythic bonuses, but I'd swear that it does.

Am I saying that I know their code better than they do? No.
Am I saying that seeing my in-game experience over a long time is significantly different than what they see when they look at the code as they understand it? Fuck yeah.

The devs can't understand anything past the loot tables. They unwittingly tell us misinformation.

And let's say a highly talented software engineer did go ahead and read the full spaghetti code regarding chest loot generation mechanics all the way back to the [quest complete] flag.....and he found indeed there was some kind analogous Wi Flag....

DO YOU REALLY THINK AFTER ALL THESE YEAR'S THEY'D OPENLY ADMIT IT?

Shinyshoes wrote on Jan 5^th, 2020 at 2:46pm:


Intentional or not, there's something more going on in the mechanics that goes beyond the chests individual drop rates.  My experience has been mostly feast or famine - almost like your drop rates are assigned when logging in.  There have been days I pull named items in almost literally ever single chest I open verses nights nothing drops regardless of how many skulls the group is running.  I haven't believed it's just a random roll for years now.

What chain you ran?

Sharn have freaking gay low drop rates.

Specially chain2 for some items.

Shinyshoes wrote on Jan 5^th, 2020 at 2:46pm:


agree.
it also seem that when I run quests that most groups don't normally run, if there is any named loot, then it tends to drop.
so, almost like the loot is on a timer, as opposed to randomness.  but just how it seems to me.
or maybe its based on amount of times named item has dropped in the last x + random roll.

If I run in a party, it probably seems to the others like stuff drops in every chest for me.

In actuality, if I am looking for an item to drop, then I'm rerolling that chest (up to) 3 times. So I get the items I'm looking for 4 times faster  (on average) than someone who never rerolls chests.

NOTpopejubal wrote on Jan 5^th, 2020 at 10:38am:

I've seen multiple reaper hats drop during a treasure hunter weekend. Want reaper Slaver blanks?  Farm them during the treasure hunter weekend.  I ended up with six in a weekend after running the chain twice on R1.  I had run it multiple times on R1 and never saw a single one.

There's a recent response from Lynnabel about drop rates.  Newer content (TOEE onwards) uses the 10% on normal, 16% on hard, 33% on elite + 1% per skull for named drop rates.

There are older chests with 100% named item drop rates.

Carpone wrote on Jan 6^th, 2020 at 1:57pm:



I read that post too using the dev tracker. In my experience I can say Lynnabel is wrong

There is no freaking way in hell I was opening chests with at least 33% and got nothing for more than 10 times in a row. Happened to me in solo and party with 5 other dudes in a pug

I don't even remember what we were running but the only named that popped out was at end quest of chain and we ran like 4 quests. 6 tries for 3 quests is 18 chances and at 33% drop chance (again, minimum, we were on reaper)

1 - (1 - P)^N

P= probability of success
N = number of trials
^ = to the power of

1 - (1 - 0.33)^18
1 - (0.67)^18
1 - 0.00074
0.99926

the percentage is next to 100%. Correct my math if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure the drop rate is not even close to 33%

I have been present for 149 chest openings of Reach for the Sky - seen 1 Wildwood Gauntlets drop. About 5 Breaking the Bank and Thundershot, around 10 Shattered Onyx, 15 Enigma Core and about 20 Moonrise Bracers. Really doesn't seem like a uniform distribution at all (as opposed to Lynnabel's claim that it is).

I'm wondering if it depends on the ordering of the items in the loot table.

Asheras wrote on Jan 7^th, 2020 at 10:17am:


We are not sharing bad luck stories but discussing if there is an actual hidden factor when looting we're not aware of. Your experience comes from a very old pack that did not include the 10%N, 16%H, 33%E

I have posted the formula to calculate the chance that a given event will happen in X number of tries using independent rolls so it's not "my opinion" unless you can find an error in my calculations. It is not only my experience but many others that the 33% chance is down right false. Not that we can do anything about it except don't loot (aka not playing) but I didn't open this 3D to bitch about "I ran this so many times...."

EDIT
This gives me an idea...I'm going to start counting the exact number of runs it takes me in a given chain/quest to get a named without ransacking. The data will be of no use to reverse engineer anything but, on a large amount of tries, will totally confirm my suspicions (as if there was even a need).

A guildie ran dq1 for 2 years, 3 times a day with 2 accs.

He never pulled a shard of spell storing ring.

He never came back to the game.

Technomage wrote on Jan 7^th, 2020 at 11:35am:


I don't think so, as they ( you know who ) won't come near loot tables ( at least old ones ) unless they really really really have no other choice.