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Hot Topic (More than 35 Replies) Item drop rate = RNG + X? (Read 7480 times)
Technomage
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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #25 - Jan 7th, 2020 at 1:01pm
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Flav wrote on Jan 7th, 2020 at 12:01pm:
I don't think so, as they ( you know who ) won't come near loot tables ( at least old ones ) unless they really really really have no other choice.


Lynnabel futzes around the loot tables all the time.

She's probably even messing with the older tables as she updates the old loot.

No, I guarantee you the Devs are NOT shy about messing with the tables. They're just not telling us when they do.
  

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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #26 - Jan 7th, 2020 at 1:14pm
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Technomage wrote on Jan 7th, 2020 at 11:35am:
That was Rodrak and that was also 8+ years ago.

Things could easily have changed since then.


There have been others. I wish they were still around.
  

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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #27 - Jan 7th, 2020 at 5:33pm
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Technomage wrote on Jan 7th, 2020 at 1:01pm:
No, I guarantee you the Devs are NOT shy about messing with the tables. They're just not telling us when they do.

Anecdotal, perhaps.
I tend to ransack Snarla chest on 2 or 3 toons on EE when I have fuck all to do, usually got 1 - 3 1k gems per ransack.
Since the Tenser 50k sent xp sale ? Nothing.

Tome drop rates got changed steadily until they don't drop anymore.
And didn't Majmal confirmed that the increased drop rates shortly after new content gets released to be true ? Or maybe it was parting troll answer here ?
  
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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #28 - Jan 9th, 2020 at 10:32pm
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krakattak wrote on Jan 6th, 2020 at 8:31pm:
I have been present for 149 chest openings of Reach for the Sky - seen 1 Wildwood Gauntlets drop. About 5 Breaking the Bank and Thundershot, around 10 Shattered Onyx, 15 Enigma Core and about 20 Moonrise Bracers. Really doesn't seem like a uniform distribution at all (as opposed to Lynnabel's claim that it is).

I'm wondering if it depends on the ordering of the items in the loot table.


Perhaps I missed the dev post you're referring to.  I remember seeing Lynn say 33% chance to get A named item on elite.  I don't recall reading that all potential named items had an even distribution chance. 

Got a link?
  
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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #29 - Jan 10th, 2020 at 5:17am
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no. wrote on Jan 9th, 2020 at 10:32pm:
Perhaps I missed the dev post you're referring to.  I remember seeing Lynn say 33% chance to get A named item on elite.  I don't recall reading that all potential named items had an even distribution chance. 

Got a link?


https://www.ddo.com/forums/showthread.php/510750-Burnscar-sash-drop-rates#post62...
  
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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #30 - Jan 14th, 2020 at 4:01am
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5 Foot Step wrote on Jan 7th, 2020 at 10:52am:
People have decompiled the code and looked at the loot tables. I'm sure if there were an x factor to named loot we would have heard about it.


You really have no idea how this works do you.

The "loot tables" are on the server-side. The only people with access to that code is Turbine, SSG and a select few others.

The only ones claiming to have recent "loot tables" are the devs, and not only are they frequently changed, but even the pre-compiled code gets devs conflicting statements.

  
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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #31 - Jan 14th, 2020 at 11:13am
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Linker wrote on Jan 14th, 2020 at 4:01am:
You really have no idea how this works do you.

The "loot tables" are on the server-side. The only people with access to that code is Turbine, SSG and a select few others.

The only ones claiming to have recent "loot tables" are the devs, and not only are they frequently changed, but even the pre-compiled code gets devs conflicting statements.


False.

The loot tables are actually also in the client.

Look for a Vault poster named Rodrak and look at some of his posts. He not only reproduces some of the tables in some of his posts, he also tells us in which DAT file the tables can be found.
  

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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #32 - Jan 14th, 2020 at 11:46am
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Ok, Found the item (been passed to me). It only took me like 50 runs


Yesterday I ran:
Tethyamar chain on reaper, 5 quests and no named
White Plume Mountain on reaper, no named (including the optional chests)
Sharn chain 1 on reaper, 5 quests and 1 named (found on third 3rd quest)

So it took 9 quests to find a named on the ninth one.

Let's run the formula once again but with 8 runs instead of 9

1 - (1 - P)^N
1 - (0.67)^8
1 - 0.04 = 0.96

The chances of finding a named in 8 quests using the 33% stated by devs is 96%. Took me 9 runs. No matter how you slice it, it's virtually impossible that a rare occurrence keeps repeating itself. At what point you can suspect that maybe it's not bad RNG but something you're not aware of is at play?

This is not a one time bad streak but just another in a long run and I'm not the only one. Statistically speaking this is an anomaly, math works in only one way (the right one). It is entirely possible I live in a universe where I only happen to get experience the rare events in a single independent system but it is like billions of billions of billions of times more likely that said system is not using the "33 %" chance of finding a non specific named in a quest.
« Last Edit: Jan 14th, 2020 at 11:50am by Artorias »  
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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #33 - Jan 14th, 2020 at 12:30pm
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What they don't tell you is that 90% of the named loot table is plat and gems.
  

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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #34 - Jan 14th, 2020 at 2:51pm
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Someone has to be at the wrong end of the bell curve.
  
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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #35 - Jan 23rd, 2020 at 11:26pm
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Linker wrote on Jan 14th, 2020 at 4:01am:
The "loot tables" are on the server-side. The only people with access to that code is Turbine, SSG and a select few others.

The only ones claiming to have recent "loot tables" are the devs, and not only are they frequently changed, but even the pre-compiled code gets devs conflicting statements.


Call us all devs, but we can see the tables... and I am not talking about looking at  Codemasters or a Japanese version from Sakura.  Wink

Linker wrote on Jan 14th, 2020 at 4:01am:
You really have no idea how this works do you.

ditto

  
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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #36 - Jan 24th, 2020 at 2:55am
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Artorias wrote on Jan 6th, 2020 at 3:29pm:
I read that post too using the dev tracker. In my experience I can say Lynnabel is wrong

There is no freaking way in hell I was opening chests with at least 33% and got nothing for more than 10 times in a row. Happened to me in solo and party with 5 other dudes in a pug

I don't even remember what we were running but the only named that popped out was at end quest of chain and we ran like 4 quests. 6 tries for 3 quests is 18 chances and at 33% drop chance (again, minimum, we were on reaper)

1 - (1 - P)^N

P= probability of success
N = number of trials
^ = to the power of

1 - (1 - 0.33)^18
1 - (0.67)^18
1 - 0.00074
0.99926

the percentage is next to 100%. Correct my math if I'm wrong but I'm pretty sure the drop rate is not even close to 33%


Lynnabel is full of shit, I am quite sure Rodrak said Toee has 5% named drop on elite (and then +1% per skull on reaper).

Now it is possible that the 33% chance is a "special table" that includes :
1, masterful items with special effects
2, tomes and or
3, ddo store items
4, and the named loot table

So it is possible that her 33% chance is in fact anywhere between 8-15%. By turdbin/SSG standards, this is not the same as misleading the consumer.
  

Vaultaccount wrote on Aug 29th, 2016 at 7:06pm:
The most broken epic PL in the game is the ridiculous AC buff from martial PLs. But when you include all the inherent benefits from reincarnation, the thing is above the roof. The benefit from TR was supposed to be minimal, but now it is game breaking. start a new character and you will feel, you will get raped in heroics.

Personally I think lower heroics on new characters are harder than Legendary Elite content on a character with good gear and has all destinies farmed.


Arkat wrote on Apr 2nd, 2014 at 4:14pm:
And someone in another thread called ME delusional recently!

Wow.

Have you EVER gone to Law School Feyn? Have you EVER been asked by a United States Senator who is now the Vice President of the United States to write a paper just for him on a particular topic of Constitutional Law for his use as a Senator? Have you ever been asked to help a very notable Harvard PhD turned Constitutional scholar with his very-well received book on Legal Philosophy and Constitutional Revolutions? Have you ever been offered a job as a Deputy Attorney General BEFORE you even graduated Law School?

No? Then STFU you fucking amateur.


Meat-Head wrote on Jul 29th, 2015 at 12:03am:
Thx. I was semi-waiting because windows 10 will be here soon. but, the crashing is making me want to punch old people.


IMARANGER wrote on Sep 8th, 2014 at 5:40pm:
Pretty sure that the fact that a service can be hacked doesn't make it the "community chest".
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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #37 - Jan 24th, 2020 at 5:40pm
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m4lacka wrote on Jan 24th, 2020 at 2:55am:
Lynnabel is full of shit, I am quite sure Rodrak said Toee has 5% named drop on elite (and then +1% per skull on reaper).

Now it is possible that the 33% chance is a "special table" that includes :
1, masterful items with special effects
2, tomes and or
3, ddo store items
4, and the named loot table

So it is possible that her 33% chance is in fact anywhere between 8-15%. By turdbin/SSG standards, this is not the same as misleading the consumer.

Bigby's Flipping Bird, anyone?

Of course she's full of shit, she's now a rock star and can, with a straight face, tell us getting no optional XP after the 8th run but getting the XP for the first 8 immediately instead of at completion is better than getting it all at completion. So, dilute the loot tables with 80% crap and tell us how lucky we are to have a 1/3 chance for something "special"? All in a day's work, enjoy your upgrade skill tome of tumble +3->+4.
  

Turdbin, keep changing the DDO rules, because McDonalds sold over 200 billion hamburgers by changing the recipe for their Special Sauce every couple of months to keep interest up.
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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #38 - Jan 25th, 2020 at 8:23am
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m4lacka wrote on Jan 24th, 2020 at 2:55am:
Lynnabel is full of shit, I am quite sure Rodrak said Toee has 5% named drop on elite (and then +1% per skull on reaper).


Lynn was refering to newer quest loot tables - certainly everything after ravenloft has that feel about it.  I think when the last major standard loot revision was done, that was when they instituted the 33% special loot table. 
They didn't go back and do that on the older quests. 

I expect that when older quests are looked at and brought up to date and the loot revised that's when the 33% is instituted on them.  However red fens as well as the up and coming catacombs and delera's chains have special loot mechanisms where the named loot is in the quest givers end lists so I expect that's not happening
  

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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #39 - Jan 25th, 2020 at 9:37am
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higgildypiggildy wrote on Jan 25th, 2020 at 8:23am:
Lynn was refering to newer quest loot tables - certainly everything after ravenloft has that feel about it.  I think when the last major standard loot revision was done, that was when they instituted the 33% special loot table. 
They didn't go back and do that on the older quests. 

I expect that when older quests are looked at and brought up to date and the loot revised that's when the 33% is instituted on them.  However red fens as well as the up and coming catacombs and delera's chains have special loot mechanisms where the named loot is in the quest givers end lists so I expect that's not happening


Quote:
Archon's Pack is definitely "new" as far as drop rates are concerned. I'm not at the office so I can't 100% verify, but I believe the delineation is everything newer than ToEE


Quote from Lynnabel. The drop rate of named has a hidden factor, it is mathematically speaking almost an impossibility for a 33% event to not occur over a streak of 8 tries and beyond and this is NOT the exception but the norm as I have I have experienced this multiple times and there are other people claiming the same. An honest system designer would, at the very least, check the system completely. Why would people even farm old packs for named items by the way???

I have already posted the formula to calculate the success percentage of an independent roll over a given number of tries. Try it yourself

I have experienced this shit myself more times than I can recall and can safely say that the 33% chance to get a named item is a giant lie.
« Last Edit: Jan 25th, 2020 at 9:38am by Artorias »  
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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #40 - Jan 25th, 2020 at 10:49am
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Rare should be Rare

To have all Named Loot after 5 runs is not the goal of a Rare thing.
when DDo was starting people are happy with a +2 shock or whatever weapon. Today +5 Vorpal metalline and keen.
and after several runs you have all things for endgame.
noone are really happy to find something good.
and dont blame lynn or cordo. they keep ddo alive, and only post destructive comments, dont help.
  
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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #41 - Jan 25th, 2020 at 12:32pm
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Magneto wrote on Jan 25th, 2020 at 10:49am:
Rare should be Rare

To have all Named Loot after 5 runs is not the goal of a Rare thing.
when DDo was starting people are happy with a +2 shock or whatever weapon. Today +5 Vorpal metalline and keen.
and after several runs you have all things for endgame.
noone are really happy to find something good.
and dont blame lynn or cordo. they keep ddo alive, and only post destructive comments, dont help.


For endgame, sure. The very best stuff should take a while to get.

But for leveling when you're only going to wear a piece of gear for 5 hours at most? There's no reason for there to be a serious grind for gear that you're just going to wear while "passing through".
  
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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #42 - Jan 25th, 2020 at 5:14pm
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Magneto wrote on Jan 25th, 2020 at 10:49am:
and dont blame lynn or cordo. they keep ddo alive


You've hit a new level of gay retardation.  Congrats.  You've been made fire proof as your reward.  Please jump in the nearest fire ASAP to test your new ability (it's totally cordo approved).
  

Turbine policy - glitches and poor coding resulting in interference of your game play or enjoyment will be ignored.  Glitches or poor coding on the developers side that at all benefit your game play or enjoyment will result in your character being banned and/or items from your inventory deleted.  Please report all bugs via our bug report...when it works.
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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #43 - Jan 26th, 2020 at 7:02am
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Artorias wrote on Jan 25th, 2020 at 9:37am:
I have experienced this shit myself more times than I can recall and can safely say that the 33% chance to get a named item is a giant lie.


33% feels about right, I get loads of named items, I re-roll lots of chests when running missions where I want specific loot (ravenloft and sharn in particular) and with 3 rerolls I generally see named loot
  

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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #44 - Jan 26th, 2020 at 7:31am
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higgildypiggildy wrote on Jan 26th, 2020 at 7:02am:
33% feels about right, I get loads of named items, I re-roll lots of chests when running missions where I want specific loot (ravenloft and sharn in particular) and with 3 rerolls I generally see named loot

You see the crap named loot not the good ones.
  

Dear players,

The D&D rules you were familiar with were too simple to understand, so we're continuing our move away from them to needlessly confusing subsystems that will make your play experience less fun and invalidate old builds and loot. We hope you have fun working out what the fuck MRR, PRR, MP, SP, RP, CL, MCL and all the other bullshit we made up whilst drunk means.

Love,

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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #45 - Jan 26th, 2020 at 8:51am
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ILoveExploits wrote on Jan 26th, 2020 at 7:31am:
You see the crap named loot not the good ones.


Run the mission like 10-15 times  I have pulled 2 minor artifacts, epic and heroic (2 sets) wildwood gloves, plus a bunch of other things from the last Sharn mission.
  

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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #46 - Jan 26th, 2020 at 6:58pm
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Magneto wrote on Jan 25th, 2020 at 10:49am:
Rare should be Rare

To have all Named Loot after 5 runs is not the goal of a Rare thing.
when DDo was starting people are happy with a +2 shock or whatever weapon. Today +5 Vorpal metalline and keen.
and after several runs you have all things for endgame.
noone are really happy to find something good.
and dont blame lynn or cordo. they keep ddo alive, and only post destructive comments, dont help.

There were the criers who demanded the reroll using shard on chests.
Now, devs are "balancing" quests based on performance by people who bought/cheater/farmed the very best stuff and have false statistics for "normal" performance.

I don't blame Lynn. I disagree a lot, but they have passion for their job and don't seem to be "out to get the player"... they are just completely lost on what D&D used to be.

I agree that cordo only posts destructive comments.  Tongue

  
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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #47 - Jan 27th, 2020 at 5:52am
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NOTpopejubal wrote on Jan 25th, 2020 at 12:32pm:
For endgame, sure. The very best stuff should take a while to get.

But for leveling when you're only going to wear a piece of gear for 5 hours at most? There's no reason for there to be a serious grind for gear that you're just going to wear while "passing through".


Agreed.  The problem, though, is that most content on DDO was once endgame because they've moved the goalposts so many times and are about to do it again. 

When they move the goalposts, they rarely bother to go back and increase drop rates.  I will give them "credit" for reducing Slave Lords crafting, but the grind was too much originally.   I think it's a bit too low now personally, but better too low than too high.
  
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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #48 - Jan 30th, 2020 at 5:58am
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Flav wrote on Jan 7th, 2020 at 12:01pm:
I don't think so, as they ( you know who ) won't come near loot tables ( at least old ones ) unless they really really really have no other choice.



if you used triple parantheses for the you know who, it would sound kinda nazi. Huh
  

Vaultaccount wrote on Aug 29th, 2016 at 7:06pm:
The most broken epic PL in the game is the ridiculous AC buff from martial PLs. But when you include all the inherent benefits from reincarnation, the thing is above the roof. The benefit from TR was supposed to be minimal, but now it is game breaking. start a new character and you will feel, you will get raped in heroics.

Personally I think lower heroics on new characters are harder than Legendary Elite content on a character with good gear and has all destinies farmed.


Arkat wrote on Apr 2nd, 2014 at 4:14pm:
And someone in another thread called ME delusional recently!

Wow.

Have you EVER gone to Law School Feyn? Have you EVER been asked by a United States Senator who is now the Vice President of the United States to write a paper just for him on a particular topic of Constitutional Law for his use as a Senator? Have you ever been asked to help a very notable Harvard PhD turned Constitutional scholar with his very-well received book on Legal Philosophy and Constitutional Revolutions? Have you ever been offered a job as a Deputy Attorney General BEFORE you even graduated Law School?

No? Then STFU you fucking amateur.


Meat-Head wrote on Jul 29th, 2015 at 12:03am:
Thx. I was semi-waiting because windows 10 will be here soon. but, the crashing is making me want to punch old people.


IMARANGER wrote on Sep 8th, 2014 at 5:40pm:
Pretty sure that the fact that a service can be hacked doesn't make it the "community chest".
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Re: Item drop rate = RNG + X?
Reply #49 - Jan 30th, 2020 at 11:19am
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no. wrote on Jan 27th, 2020 at 5:52am:
Agreed.  The problem, though, is that most content on DDO was once endgame because they've moved the goalposts so many times and are about to do it again. 

When they move the goalposts, they rarely bother to go back and increase drop rates.  I will give them "credit" for reducing Slave Lords crafting, but the grind was too much originally.   I think it's a bit too low now personally, but better too low than too high. 

^This
And not just drop rates, whenever they change a system they need to go back and make *all* of their content relevant under the new rules. It's just one more reason they shouldn't keep changing systems. If a change invalidates the content you worked hard to create, you have thrown away your prior effort.

DDO doesn't have the development staff to crank out new content fast enough to keep players busy, and their current pool of relevant content is already pathetically small compared to other games. Making old content useless because its loot has crappy drop rates and sub-standard stats is just begging your players to play other games a month or two after your latest expansion goes live. And how many times will they keep coming back?

As to slave lord mat drop rates, they are still very screwed up for casual players. They're OK if you're a power gamer speed running on Elite or Reaper, but they are a horrific grind for a causal player with a friend or two slogging through on normal. What idiot came up with that scaling? Maybe they'll save us from the grind with a permanent ransack on mats after 8 runs  Roll Eyes
  

Turdbin, keep changing the DDO rules, because McDonalds sold over 200 billion hamburgers by changing the recipe for their Special Sauce every couple of months to keep interest up.
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