Nuic wrote on Aug 28
th, 2020 at 12:38am:
Been farming sent xp for the past couple months off-cd with 5 alts. Before the past 3 weeks, I was pulling 5-9 xp stones per week. In these 3 weeks I've pulled a total of 4. Tin foil hat's on.
I strongly believe that whatever mechanism SSG uses to do RNG is broken on some fundamental level and the braintrust over on the motherboards is too dumb to recognize it.
Its consistency vs. eventual consistency. In simplest terms, if the drop rate is the rate they say it is, and the mechanics are working correctly, then it shouldn't take all that many runs to consistently see that rate.
Obviously we don't know what the sentient item drop rate is, but they've stated the named item drop rate is 33%. If the mechanism were working correctly, then every 10 runs you should consistently average 3 items. In practice, this is not what a large portion of the player base is experiencing.
You can not only easily go 10 runs without seeing a single item, you can do as many as 50(my personal record), some are reporting even more. And then suddenly you'll get 10 items in a row. Yes, this is all possible in RNG, but it is statistically unlikely for that many people to be reporting that much inconsistency.
When SSG examines the loot mechanics, they don't actually play the game to do it, then just run some metrics on their logs. So they're looking at 100,000 runs and seeing that 33,000 items dropped, and saying "yeah, that confirms its working the way we want"
But thats kistarded because individual players do not do 100,000 runs. We do 8 runs. And we should not fucking HAVE to do 100,000 runs to see the consistent drop rate.
Compare it to something as simple as a coin-flip. If SSG wrote a coin flipping scripts, then it would give you a couple hundred heads in a row followed by 50 tails in a row, and if over the course of a million flips it hit 50/50, they'd call it a success. That's the kind of fucked DDO's loot mechanic is.