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Hot Topic (More than 35 Replies) Kind of funny/kind of sad (Read 9152 times)
higgildypiggildy
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Re: Kind of funny/kind of sad
Reply #25 - Oct 11th, 2020 at 10:15am
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noamineo wrote on Oct 11th, 2020 at 3:47am:
Then my computer shat itself and I lost the spreadsheet.

So the moral of this story, kids: don't use RAID0.


No the moral of the story is always maintain up to date backups.  Without a backup you don't have anything
  

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Artorias
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Re: Kind of funny/kind of sad
Reply #26 - Oct 11th, 2020 at 10:54am
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AAH wrote on Oct 11th, 2020 at 9:40am:
I believe it.  I've barked many times on the forum about drop rates and presented evidence too but got pretty much the same types of responses.



I have posted a mathematical formula here on this forum to calculate the success percentage from multiple pulls, repeated tests until the success rate (of pulling a named) was supposed to be around 97% and failed multiple times. The drop rate for named items is NOT 33%

I know you could fail a check with 97% success rate but when it happens multiple times in a row, well, the most idiotic, retarded, uneducated fuck on earth is authorized to shoot kittens in the street and get away with it. Also, even a 33% chance of getting a named items when the loot table has several items, leads to a potential gargantuan grind. Not saying I want everything spoon fed to me but give me a fucking way of getting that goddamn piece of gear after I farmed the fucking quest over 50 times between EE and reaper 4 (true story for me and many others)
  
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Re: Kind of funny/kind of sad
Reply #27 - Oct 11th, 2020 at 11:23am
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Those vaultofkundarak guys listed some drop rates. It seems they got it from the client data. 33% might be true but since you get 5 items on that list, it will take a time if you get the one with the lowest singel drop rate.
  

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Re: Kind of funny/kind of sad
Reply #28 - Oct 11th, 2020 at 3:41pm
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noamineo wrote on Oct 9th, 2020 at 7:45pm:
The raid rune system is fantastic.


You can't get tomes with raid runes.  Until you can, so far as I'm concerned, the runes are a step backwards from 20th-completion end reward lists.
  
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noamineo
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Re: Kind of funny/kind of sad
Reply #29 - Oct 11th, 2020 at 6:33pm
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Artorias wrote on Oct 11th, 2020 at 10:54am:
I have posted a mathematical formula here on this forum to calculate the success percentage from multiple pulls, repeated tests until the success rate (of pulling a named) was supposed to be around 97% and failed multiple times. The drop rate for named items is NOT 33%

I know you could fail a check with 97% success rate but when it happens multiple times in a row, well, the most idiotic, retarded, uneducated fuck on earth is authorized to shoot kittens in the street and get away with it. Also, even a 33% chance of getting a named items when the loot table has several items, leads to a potential gargantuan grind. Not saying I want everything spoon fed to me but give me a fucking way of getting that goddamn piece of gear after I farmed the fucking quest over 50 times between EE and reaper 4 (true story for me and many others)


^This.

Yeah, I have a really tough time with the disconnect the idiots of the forums have. Yes, it is technically feasible for someone to do 100 chest pulls on EE and not see a single named item, the laws of probability do allow for such an outcome.

However, if MANY people are reporting the same outcome MANY TIMES, than that clearly means the laws of probability are not working correctly.

Yet the motherboard paladins would apparently rather believe that they are drawing nothing but straight flushes while the rest of us can't even get two pair, and yet somehow the deck is not stacked.
  

I'll never understand the propensity of people to brag about being good at a video game. Its a toy you play with for fun. The only person who should be proud of you is your mother. If you're 3.
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Re: Kind of funny/kind of sad
Reply #30 - Oct 11th, 2020 at 8:40pm
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Snu Snu wrote on Oct 11th, 2020 at 11:23am:
Those vaultofkundarak guys listed some drop rates.

Who? Where?
  

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Re: Kind of funny/kind of sad
Reply #31 - Oct 11th, 2020 at 10:14pm
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Technomage wrote on Oct 11th, 2020 at 8:40pm:
Who? Where?


Why? How?
  

I'll never understand the propensity of people to brag about being good at a video game. Its a toy you play with for fun. The only person who should be proud of you is your mother. If you're 3.
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AAH
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Re: Kind of funny/kind of sad
Reply #32 - Oct 12th, 2020 at 1:49am
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Technomage wrote on Oct 11th, 2020 at 8:40pm:
Who? Where?


noamineo wrote on Oct 11th, 2020 at 10:14pm:
Why? How?


Those just put this in my head so now YOU MUST SUFFER THE SAME FATE.


  

Gunga wrote on Apr 6th, 2021 at 9:31am:
This game doesn’t deserve great players, honestly.
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Re: Kind of funny/kind of sad
Reply #33 - Oct 12th, 2020 at 1:13pm
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AAH wrote on Oct 12th, 2020 at 1:49am:
Those just put this in my head


My work here is done.
  

I'll never understand the propensity of people to brag about being good at a video game. Its a toy you play with for fun. The only person who should be proud of you is your mother. If you're 3.
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Re: Kind of funny/kind of sad
Reply #34 - Oct 12th, 2020 at 8:06pm
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Technomage wrote on Oct 11th, 2020 at 8:40pm:
Who? Where?


  

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Re: Kind of funny/kind of sad
Reply #35 - Oct 12th, 2020 at 8:36pm
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Anybody know what the chances of reaper bonus are on various items? (Especially helms)
  
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Re: Kind of funny/kind of sad
Reply #36 - Oct 12th, 2020 at 8:48pm
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Snu Snu wrote on Oct 12th, 2020 at 8:06pm:


Where is this detailed description in the second part of that screenshot found?
  

I'll never understand the propensity of people to brag about being good at a video game. Its a toy you play with for fun. The only person who should be proud of you is your mother. If you're 3.
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Re: Kind of funny/kind of sad
Reply #37 - Oct 12th, 2020 at 10:40pm
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noamineo wrote on Oct 12th, 2020 at 8:48pm:
Where is this detailed description in the second part of that screenshot found?

https://vaultofkundarak.com/item/Black_Opal_Bracers
  

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noamineo
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Re: Kind of funny/kind of sad
Reply #38 - Oct 13th, 2020 at 1:03pm
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Technomage wrote on Oct 12th, 2020 at 10:40pm:


Oh so thats from their website, not visible in game? Ok.

Yeah, those rates are definitely much more in line with what I'm actually seeing. Ok this is updated with Sharn loot, why is this site not better known on the motherboards?! WHY IS IT NOT BETTER KNOWN HERE?!?!
  

I'll never understand the propensity of people to brag about being good at a video game. Its a toy you play with for fun. The only person who should be proud of you is your mother. If you're 3.
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Re: Kind of funny/kind of sad
Reply #39 - Oct 13th, 2020 at 1:42pm
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noamineo wrote on Oct 13th, 2020 at 1:03pm:
Oh so thats from their website, not visible in game? Ok.

Yeah, those rates are definitely much more in line with what I'm actually seeing. Ok this is updated with Sharn loot, why is this site not better known on the motherboards?! WHY IS IT NOT BETTER KNOWN HERE?!?!

Anyone who posted their work on the DDO Forums would likely get banned.

Rodrak, who originally delved into the DDO client to expose the drop rates several years ago got a temp ban. Turbine justified it by saying that taking apart the code in order to get the drop rates violated the DDO User agreement.

Posting this kind of info on the DDO Forums would likely be a similar violation.

As to why this is the first time this precise information from that Vault of Kundarak website was posted here on the Vault, I can't tell you. That was the first time I ever saw it. Had I known about it, I've posted it here LONG ago.
  

Do not try the patience of wizards, for they are subtle and quick to anger.

We are dreamers, shapers, singers, and makers. We study the mysteries of laser and circuit, crystal and scanner, holographic demons and invocation of equations. These are the tools we employ, and we know many things.

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noamineo
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Re: Kind of funny/kind of sad
Reply #40 - Oct 13th, 2020 at 2:39pm
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Well the obvious answer is post on a friday evening on a sock account. Let the sock get banned, but it'll be up there a full weekend.
  

I'll never understand the propensity of people to brag about being good at a video game. Its a toy you play with for fun. The only person who should be proud of you is your mother. If you're 3.
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Re: Kind of funny/kind of sad
Reply #41 - Oct 13th, 2020 at 2:40pm
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noamineo wrote on Oct 13th, 2020 at 1:03pm:
Yeah, those rates are definitely much more in line with what I'm actually seeing.


Roll Eyes 2 items drop in that chest both with 16% drop rate = 32% chance for a named item...
  
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Re: Kind of funny/kind of sad
Reply #42 - Oct 13th, 2020 at 7:12pm
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noamineo wrote on Oct 13th, 2020 at 2:39pm:
Well the obvious answer is post on a friday evening on a sock account. Let the sock get banned, but it'll be up there a full weekend.

So you just volunteered.  That's how this works.
  
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Re: Kind of funny/kind of sad
Reply #43 - Oct 13th, 2020 at 9:46pm
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Quote:
So you just volunteered.  That's how this works.


Just wait till friday for the unmasking of my latest forum sock!!
  

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Re: Kind of funny/kind of sad
Reply #44 - Oct 14th, 2020 at 11:11pm
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Technomage wrote on Oct 12th, 2020 at 10:40pm:


That is a neat site. I hope that they fill out the drop rates on more items.
  

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Re: Kind of funny/kind of sad
Reply #45 - Oct 16th, 2020 at 7:08am
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Anyway if my universal dice weight theory is correct, that explains why everyone agrees that one item is the clear rare drop (looking at you Family Recruit Sigil) in a big list even when we look into the code and see that they are listed as roughly the same %.

Because the loot roll to see what you get (after the roll to see if you get named loot) is a d100, and each named item is assigned a number range (1-16, 17-34, etc) if every roll is automatically weighted and it is actually rolling E.G. d90+10, then whichever item is assigned the bottom numbers gets the shaft because you can't roll under 11 so that item is only 6-7% while all the others are 16-17%. Or if it's something like 5d20 instead of d100 then both the top and the bottom get hosed (but the bottom gets hosed more) because the middle numbers are most likely.
  

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Re: Kind of funny/kind of sad
Reply #46 - Oct 16th, 2020 at 6:47pm
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5 Foot Step wrote on Oct 16th, 2020 at 7:08am:
Anyway if my universal dice weight theory is correct, that explains why everyone agrees that one item is the clear rare drop (looking at you Family Recruit Sigil) in a big list even when we look into the code and see that they are listed as roughly the same %.

Because the loot roll to see what you get (after the roll to see if you get named loot) is a d100, and each named item is assigned a number range (1-16, 17-34, etc) if every roll is automatically weighted and it is actually rolling E.G. d90+10, then whichever item is assigned the bottom numbers gets the shaft because you can't roll under 11 so that item is only 6-7% while all the others are 16-17%. Or if it's something like 5d20 instead of d100 then both the top and the bottom get hosed (but the bottom gets hosed more) because the middle numbers are most likely.


That seems to be the likely culprit.

It also fits with my theory since averaged out over hundreds of thousands of chest-pulls it won't look *that* far off. The clear discrepancy is only visible from the perspective of a player.
  

I'll never understand the propensity of people to brag about being good at a video game. Its a toy you play with for fun. The only person who should be proud of you is your mother. If you're 3.
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Re: Kind of funny/kind of sad
Reply #47 - Aug 12th, 2021 at 10:10am
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5 Foot Step wrote on Oct 16th, 2020 at 7:08am:
Because the loot roll to see what you get (after the roll to see if you get named loot) is a d100, and each named item is assigned a number range (1-16, 17-34, etc) if every roll is automatically weighted and it is actually rolling E.G. d90+10, then whichever item is assigned the bottom numbers gets the shaft because you can't roll under 11 so that item is only 6-7% while all the others are 16-17%. Or if it's something like 5d20 instead of d100 then both the top and the bottom get hosed (but the bottom gets hosed more) because the middle numbers are most likely.


The loot tables that have the individually named items (that I have manually inspected) never have the "+10" modifiers possibilities (from potions / buffs / world bonuses / etc) that I do see on the "do you get something or not" tables.

Fwiw.
  
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