For various reasons I found myself curious about the Daily Dice rewards of late so I thought it was time to investigate.

In the interest of science I burned of 2000 shards, well actually 2070 as I did win 75 and rolled them back into the dice. 

I wasn't terribly impressed with the randomness of the items. 15 of 138 rolls ended up with Fucking Bigby's hands, and if I never see another potion of Titan's grip again I'll die happy, I pulled 21 of the damn things. 

The greatest interest to me was the total absence of any elixirs of discovery of any kind.  Out of the 138 rolls, not one elixir dropped. I find this odd because I have 3 stacks of them from the last couple of times I rolled the dice a hundred-plus times, and other than Improved Otto's the Daily Dice is the only place to get them.

I don't know if this is an intentional change by the devs or not, if they are trying to wind back the buff to named items dropping or if it is just dumb chance. I don't claim to be any good with statistics, but I'd be happy to share a list of all the rolls, including rewards with some clever gent or gents to peruse if you think you could steer me right. And if you need a bigger sample size, I'd be willing to knock out some more rolls.

Now that you mention it, I didn't pull one single sun flask, I had forgotten all about those.

Think I may need to try another 100 rolls, if only out of curiosity, cheers! 

When was that Zoop? and what did you get for the 100s?

Those are some nice pulls man, I only ended up with a 1pth tome of fate, 2x tome of fate upgrades to 2, a disable device upgrade, a +4 dex tome, one robe, a mount and so many fucking potions of titans grip... I almost punched the laptop! lol lol 

Otherwise just piles of Bigby's and typical pots...resists, 18x various treasure hunter pots, but not one damn elixir of discovery! phoey! 

pretty miserable 138 pulls, good thing I don't pay for shards I'd be calling Boston right now asking to speak to the manager like my mum.

I did a couple of big rolls in August and then again in October I have over 40 of the 15% ones from those times, lots of cosmetics, three mounts, piles of different stuff, no tome over 4... jealous of your 8 ya bastard!!! 

You also get medium elixirs with Improved otto's as well

The Grandest of Fellows wrote on Apr 2^nd, 2021 at 2:36pm:


RIGHT?!?!?! Like FUCK! That would be shitty.

So just a quick check for you, you said you recorded all the roles? What's the average over 138? If the number isn't somewhere close to 50, that's proof something ain't right.

It would actually be really cool to reverse-engineer DDO's RNG. Would answer a lot of questions.

Quote:


I remember seeing a BIG list in the DDO forums at some point.

Sometime I rolled when I had the itch and I knew the next one was gunna be “the one”. I’ve probably spent 3k shards or more over time and have gotten a few suits, like 5-6, a black fast horse, to name the more notable items I can remember.   But so many disappointments.  One thing to note: the last gold roll I got an elixir that added another six to chest rolls that stacked with the discoveries and the other ones that the gems turned into.  I rolled items every time I did DD with that char.

noamineo wrote on Apr 2^nd, 2021 at 6:29pm:


Oh, I’m certain that it IS deliberately skewed.  I bought the season pass two years ago specifically for the daily gold rolls, which I performed daily, on every open server for 2 years.   The only time I missed days was when they completely fucked up that server migration back in 2019. 

Long story short, my gold roll numbers got a lot higher for a three day period upon buying points in the ddo store.  Just to be a dick about it, I made multiple points purchases on the same day last year, and rolled seven 100s out of 24 possible rolls (3 rolls x 8 servers) over that three day period.  Mostly everything else was 80-99 range and absolutely nothing landed at 50 or below.

Of note, the amount of points purchased didn’t seem to matter, just that points were purchased period.

Got it.  I'll start poking the data this weekend.

Want to send it my way, too? I'm no statistician but I can tell you a few things very quickly.

I think I found SSG's random number generator:



Pretty decent likeness for cordo, wouldn't you say?

Ok so again I'm no statistician but I ran a couple of basic tests

For a point of comparison we will be using a list of random numbers generated by excel.

                   DDO       Excel
Average:     48.927 / 48.985
Variance        817.53 / 729.93
Chi-square: 0.518808315 / 0.518808315

I'll be honest, I don't really know what most of this means, just throwing some formulas at it. If ya squint it looks like a pretty decent random set, but that doesn't really prove anything. Someone who didn't pass math with a C- should probably give it a go.