Page Index Toggle Pages: 1 Send TopicPrint
Normal Topic Minimum guesstimate (Read 1879 times)
AAH
DQ Assaulter
*****
Offline


SSG .. making shit a reality.

Posts: 442
Location: Australia
Joined: Jul 29th, 2015
Gender: Male
Minimum guesstimate
Apr 23rd, 2021 at 12:17am
Print Post  
Was in the game earlier and grabbed a couple of freebies from the store.  Noticed the Xsolla redemption numbers were 43 apart.  The emails were 27 seconds apart.

It got me overthinking.  So I looked back to my first known Xsolla email (10/23/2015) and the redemption number is 1600058 and the latest is 262792312.

So ...
262,792,312 - 1,600,058 = 261,192,254 redemptions
04/23/2021 - 10/23/2015 = 2009 days (or 2010 if you include today)
261,192,254 / 2,009 = 130,011 (decimals removed)

So is it safe to say the average redemption (transaction) count per day is 130,011?  We could almost call it accurate because it's based on information they've provided by way of a basic counter and it's across 5 years.  I grabbed a few other numbers from different dates and the averages are close for shorter time periods, as well.

The cheapest item I know of in the store (could be others but I'm only going by what I've bought and seen) is a Vintage Bottle of Old Sully's Grog at 5 points.  If all redemptions were only for a Vintage Bottle of Old Sully's Grog then that's (at least) 650,055 points per day.

Ok.  So the points per dollar exchange rate, at best, is 115.01 points per dollar.

650,055 / 115.01 = 5,652 (decimals removed)

650,055 points of trade has (at worst) a value of $5,652.  I say at worst because the higher the points/dollar exchange rate is, the less the value will be, AND that's at 5 points per transaction.

So is it safe to say that the minimum revenue from the store is $5,652 per day?

But not everyone is buying Sully's Grog so what would be an average point spend per redemption (transaction) I wonder?  100?  200?  Mine is about 110.

If every redemption was just 10 points, then the minimum would double.

Worth noting too.  VIPs get 6000 points gifted per year and gifted points also come from in-game stuff too, so there's a portion of the 130,011 redemptions per day that have no value at all.  Let's say it's 20%, and that's a huge loss, but still 104,008 redemptions per day that become revenue.

And from the revenue comes taxes, wages, infrastructure, utilities, etc and those are unknown values but keep in mind the objective of the post is to guess what would the minimum revenue be.  Not what the potential profit is etc.  It's just an exercise in numbers.




  

Gunga wrote on Apr 6th, 2021 at 9:31am:
This game doesn’t deserve great players, honestly.
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Mattyo
Dragon Raider
***
Offline


Rum & Coke. DO IT!

Posts: 296
Joined: May 21st, 2020
Re: Minimum guesstimate
Reply #1 - Apr 23rd, 2021 at 2:21am
Print Post  
I would guess a large part of their revenue relies on VIP membership, selling expansions at any cost and snake oil.
  
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Shinyshoes
Abbot Raider
**
Offline


I Love Drama!

Posts: 754
Joined: Mar 8th, 2019
Re: Minimum guesstimate
Reply #2 - Apr 23rd, 2021 at 2:57am
Print Post  
Mattyo wrote on Apr 23rd, 2021 at 2:21am:
I would guess a large part of their revenue relies on VIP membership, selling expansions at any cost and snake oil.


It certainly doesn't rely on reliability or solid customer service.
They are the video game version of an ugly dominatrix. Telling you what you can't do and never looking good enough for you to get it on your own.
  
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Mattyo
Dragon Raider
***
Offline


Rum & Coke. DO IT!

Posts: 296
Joined: May 21st, 2020
Re: Minimum guesstimate
Reply #3 - Apr 23rd, 2021 at 4:46am
Print Post  
Their only selling point is nostalgia and that same generation’s will to thrive.
  
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Shunned
Stormreaver Piker
*
Online


Hi! You have multiple
personality disorder.

Posts: 518
Location: Behind the edit button
Joined: Nov 21st, 2020
Re: Minimum guesstimate
Reply #4 - Apr 23rd, 2021 at 5:21am
Print Post  
AAH wrote on Apr 23rd, 2021 at 12:17am:
It's just an exercise in numbers.



Let's work backwards, knowing what we have from the EG7 numbers, whats the yearly revenue, assume it all comes from the store, and see what number of transaactions divided by that number equals as a value per transaction.

Then figure expansions maybe 50 percent of revenue?

So if we know the number of store transactions per year, and we know the gross revenue per year, etc
  
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
AAH
DQ Assaulter
*****
Offline


SSG .. making shit a reality.

Posts: 442
Location: Australia
Joined: Jul 29th, 2015
Gender: Male
Re: Minimum guesstimate
Reply #5 - Apr 23rd, 2021 at 9:12am
Print Post  
Shunned wrote on Apr 23rd, 2021 at 5:21am:
Let's work backwards, knowing what we have from the EG7 numbers, whats the yearly revenue, assume it all comes from the store, and see what number of transaactions divided by that number equals as a value per transaction.

Then figure expansions maybe 50 percent of revenue?

So if we know the number of store transactions per year, and we know the gross revenue per year, etc

Sure thing.  What's EG7?
  

Gunga wrote on Apr 6th, 2021 at 9:31am:
This game doesn’t deserve great players, honestly.
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
SpaceGoat
Stormreaver Piker
*
Offline


I Love Drama!

Posts: 598
Joined: Oct 14th, 2015
Re: Minimum guesstimate
Reply #6 - Apr 23rd, 2021 at 10:17am
Print Post  
you have to account for free points given out by customer service to correct things and probably free points given out by cordo and other random "gifts" what about all of the weekly coupons?

  
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Technomage
Epic Poster
*****
Offline


And so it begins...

Posts: 4444
Location: Tucson, AZ
Joined: Aug 27th, 2015
Gender: Male
Re: Minimum guesstimate
Reply #7 - Apr 23rd, 2021 at 10:40am
Print Post  
AAH wrote on Apr 23rd, 2021 at 9:12am:
Sure thing.  What's EG7?

Enad Global 7 - the company that bought Daybreak Games for $300 Million in December, 2020.
  

Do not try the patience of wizards, for they are subtle and quick to anger.

We are dreamers, shapers, singers, and makers. We study the mysteries of laser and circuit, crystal and scanner, holographic demons and invocation of equations. These are the tools we employ, and we know many things.

The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Peciduous
Korthos Resident
*
Offline


I Love Drama!

Posts: 12
Joined: Jul 18th, 2020
Re: Minimum guesstimate
Reply #8 - Apr 23rd, 2021 at 3:23pm
Print Post  
Or the xsolla transaction isn't just for DDO, but all the other webstores they provide transaction services for...
  
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
noamineo
Completionist (i.t.p.)
******
Offline


All men fear time, but
time fears the pyramids

Posts: 8916
Location: Titan
Joined: Jul 2nd, 2014
Re: Minimum guesstimate
Reply #9 - Apr 23rd, 2021 at 3:53pm
Print Post  
SpaceGoat wrote on Apr 23rd, 2021 at 10:17am:
you have to account for free points given out by customer service



What customer service?
  

I'll never understand the propensity of people to brag about being good at a video game. Its a toy you play with for fun. The only person who should be proud of you is your mother. If you're 3.
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
AAH
DQ Assaulter
*****
Offline


SSG .. making shit a reality.

Posts: 442
Location: Australia
Joined: Jul 29th, 2015
Gender: Male
Re: Minimum guesstimate
Reply #10 - Apr 23rd, 2021 at 6:36pm
Print Post  
SpaceGoat wrote on Apr 23rd, 2021 at 10:17am:
you have to account for free points given out by customer service to correct things and probably free points given out by cordo and other random "gifts" what about all of the weekly coupons?



True.  But 20% is still generous.  That would be like saying every 5th day is free.  So 20% would be way above what it would be I'd expect.
  

Gunga wrote on Apr 6th, 2021 at 9:31am:
This game doesn’t deserve great players, honestly.
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
AAH
DQ Assaulter
*****
Offline


SSG .. making shit a reality.

Posts: 442
Location: Australia
Joined: Jul 29th, 2015
Gender: Male
Re: Minimum guesstimate
Reply #11 - Apr 23rd, 2021 at 6:42pm
Print Post  
Peciduous wrote on Apr 23rd, 2021 at 3:23pm:
Or the xsolla transaction isn't just for DDO, but all the other webstores they provide transaction services for...

Ahh.  Now there's something I didn't consider.

That makes complete sense.  I was having trouble comprehending the average which worked out at 1.5 redemptions per second.

Xsolla say on their site 42M+ transactions per year so 5 years of that would certainly account for such a large redemption count.

I have been spamming the buy button on some Grog (just to observe) and at worse I was getting redemption counts 4 apart but within 1 second.  Seemed unbelievable but now it is believable.

Awesome.  I'm completely wrong and I'm ok with that.
  

Gunga wrote on Apr 6th, 2021 at 9:31am:
This game doesn’t deserve great players, honestly.
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Asheras
Completionist (i.t.p.)
******
Offline


This is why we can't have
nice things.

Posts: 10230
Location: Ohio
Joined: Jun 9th, 2010
Gender: Male
Re: Minimum guesstimate
Reply #12 - Apr 24th, 2021 at 7:04am
Print Post  
Peciduous wrote on Apr 23rd, 2021 at 3:23pm:
Or the xsolla transaction isn't just for DDO, but all the other webstores they provide transaction services for...

Unlikely.   Their service is probably instanced for each client entity.  It’s a financial accounting system at heart.  The transaction number would be treated like a check number or an invoice number and having gaps that cant be accounted for on any individual client would be problematic from an audit perspective. 

  
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Asheras
Completionist (i.t.p.)
******
Offline


This is why we can't have
nice things.

Posts: 10230
Location: Ohio
Joined: Jun 9th, 2010
Gender: Male
Re: Minimum guesstimate
Reply #13 - Apr 24th, 2021 at 7:13am
Print Post  
AAH wrote on Apr 23rd, 2021 at 6:42pm:
Ahh.  Now there's something I didn't consider.

That makes complete sense.  I was having trouble comprehending the average which worked out at 1.5 redemptions per second.

Xsolla say on their site 42M+ transactions per year so 5 years of that would certainly account for such a large redemption count.

I have been spamming the buy button on some Grog (just to observe) and at worse I was getting redemption counts 4 apart but within 1 second.  Seemed unbelievable but now it is believable.

Awesome.  I'm completely wrong and I'm ok with that.


Chances are the 42 million transactions are monetary transactions (purchases of points) not redemptions. 

Which makes sense when you consider their client base.   Xsolla provides services for epic games and fort nite.   
  
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
AAH
DQ Assaulter
*****
Offline


SSG .. making shit a reality.

Posts: 442
Location: Australia
Joined: Jul 29th, 2015
Gender: Male
Re: Minimum guesstimate
Reply #14 - Apr 24th, 2021 at 8:18am
Print Post  
Asheras wrote on Apr 24th, 2021 at 7:04am:
Unlikely.   Their service is probably instanced for each client entity.  It’s a financial accounting system at heart.  The transaction number would be treated like a check number or an invoice number and having gaps that cant be accounted for on any individual client would be problematic from an audit perspective. 


Logically I agree that it would make sense to assign unique Operation IDs (what they're really called) per client, but practically, there's just no need to.

SSG buy the service so they're as much a customer as the gamer.
  

Gunga wrote on Apr 6th, 2021 at 9:31am:
This game doesn’t deserve great players, honestly.
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
AAH
DQ Assaulter
*****
Offline


SSG .. making shit a reality.

Posts: 442
Location: Australia
Joined: Jul 29th, 2015
Gender: Male
Re: Minimum guesstimate
Reply #15 - Apr 24th, 2021 at 8:47am
Print Post  
Asheras wrote on Apr 24th, 2021 at 7:13am:
Chances are the 42 million transactions are monetary transactions (purchases of points) not redemptions. 

Which makes sense when you consider their client base.   Xsolla provides services for epic games and fort nite.   


Fair enough.  Hard to tell really.  When I purchase points I get a different kind of email from Xsolla with an actual transaction number which is nowhere near the operation id.

At the end of the day I would imagine SSG get their revenue when people make points purchases and not when they convert DDO points to products.  Again, my BS was just an exercise in numbers.
  

Gunga wrote on Apr 6th, 2021 at 9:31am:
This game doesn’t deserve great players, honestly.
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
DDONoob
Dragon Raider
***
Offline


I Love Drama!

Posts: 247
Joined: May 7th, 2012
Gender: Male
Re: Minimum guesstimate
Reply #16 - Apr 24th, 2021 at 9:26am
Print Post  
Standing Stones Games has a yearly turnover of more than $20 million a year from two games.

https://www.dnb.com/business-directory/company-profiles.standing_stone_games_llc...
  
Back to top
IP Logged
 
Page Index Toggle Pages: 1
Send TopicPrint